Whether there will be a war between Baghdad and Erbil because of Governorate of Kirkuk?

After in Iraq Province of Kurdistan held on September 25 a referendum about independence including in so-called disputable territories — rich oil of Governorate of Kirkuk, areas Tuz-Hurmatu, Hanekin, Dzhelavla, to Karatepa, events in Iraq began to develop according to the predicted scenario. Baghdad not only did not recognize a referendum. Declared that will not begin to hold negotiations with the autonomy government, and started preparation of military operation on restoration controls over Governorate of Kirkuk. In return, Erbil started throwing to Governorate of Kirkuk rebels from self-defense forces peshmerga.

the Prime minister Iraq al-Abadi Kheydar declared that "the army Iraq does not intend to be at war against citizens of the country", but demanded from Kurds to refuse results of a referendum to start dialogue. Erbil answered that is ready to dialogue, but intends to cancel nothing. Messages from a zone of military opposition arrive the inconsistent. The Iraq TV channel Al Sumariya, referring to own sources, reported that the Iraq armies faced resistance of the Kurdish militia to the South from Governorate of Kirkuk. Negotiations in the Kurdish Dukana between the president Iraq Maasum Fuad and the head of the Kurdish autonomy Masud Barzani, representatives of leading Kurdish parties — Democratic and the Patriotic union came to the end with anything. "The referendum will not be cancelled, but it is necessary to continue dialogue with Baghdad" — declared after negotiations in Erbil, hoping that Baghdad "does not think to resolve an issue in the military way".

as events will develop further. In this regard the prime minister Iraq addressed with an appeal to all Iraq parties, the civil organizations, United Nations, United States of America, to EU, to the states participating in war against IGIL (the organization which activity is forbidden to Russian Federation), to Security Council of United Nations, and also to neighboring countries, "to interfere, play a role in prevention of new war in the region". At the same time council of the Iraq Basra declared the intention to declare self-government, "if the central government continues to neglect the financial rights of the province" that Iraq testifies to the beginning of operation of a chain of disintegration. We will try to generalize the following important factors.

First. The crisis connected with a referendum about independence the Iraq Province of Kurdistan, gradually goes deep. The military exercises begun at borders Iraq proceed. Turkey, Iran and Iraq stopped air traffic with Erbil. In conflict areas, including Governorate of Kirkuk, presence strengthening peshmerga and federal army is observed. Very important and how will work further IGIL (the organization which activity is forbidden to Russian Federation) and what will be its actions after defeats in Mosul and in Rakke that, probably, will cause some new events as in regional, and on a global scale. Not today, but it becomes obligatory tomorrow Kurdish the main problem already to Syrie. What position will be taken by Damascus? While it is located not to political, and an administrative autonomy of Kurds. Obviously and that dynamics of civil war to Syrie and in Iraq are connected between itself. It is not known that Kurds will do Turkey. In this regard the new coalition Ankara — Tehran — Damascus — Baghdad is possible. Whether but will anticipate this emergence in the region of new lines of ethnic, religious and public breaks in the region?

Second. The former prime minister Turkey Ahmet Davutoglu submitted the project including implementation of article 140 of the Constitution Iraq to resolve intensity in Governorate of Kirkuk between Erbil and Baghdad. "Article 140 which provides holding a referendum in Governorate of Kirkuk, has to be carried out not as unilateral introduction and as a referendum according to the offer reached between the parties" — Ahmet Davutoglu are told in the statement. In his opinion, article 140 contains a key to the solution of a question of disputable areas Iraq: return of violently moved Kurdish inhabitants, population census and holding a referendum about, whether want to be these regions part Province of Kurdistan. According to the Constitution, this article had to be realized by the end of 2007, but still it did not occur. At the same time Ahmet Davutoglu assumes that "all results of a referendum of September 25, including the status Governorate of Kirkuk, in this framework have to be frozen to allow negotiations". The former prime minister Turkey also offered equal participation of Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens in city administration to avoid the conflict. It is sounded and the offered al-Abadi Kheydar model of "special federal management" concerning Governorate of Kirkuk which was supported by Turkmens. The official representative of the Iraq Turkmen front Mehdi Alevtina spoke about it so: "We support model of "special federation" in Governorate of Kirkuk".

Third. The referendum in Iraq Province of Kurdistan can become means of the bargaining which will provide Masud Barzani more extensive powers and opportunities. It is an important political course on a way which conducts, but yet did not result in independence. If to desire of Kurds to have the sovereign state prevent, and Kurds while will postpone declaration of independence, in exchange they will demand from Baghdad transition from federal system of the device Iraq to the confederative. Thus it is unlikely military intervention in a course of events Turkey or Iran, together or separately will take place. Perhaps, it is the main conclusion to which we incline. But it is necessary to be ready to the most unexpected course of events in Iraq.