Kazakhstan — the country of a deep economic crisis: review

@REGNUM
Show original
the Population of the country is interested in sports and revival of traditions. Economic forecasts disturb only spetsialistov
<=" % 23" title = "To share a href through WhatsApp" >

B Kazakhstan in good time prepare for Nauryz's celebration (the holiday of new year on an astronomical solar calendar at the Iranian and Turkic people, is celebrated on March 21 — REGNUM news agency information agency "REGNUM" ). In this regard the past news week more than the usual was filled with a positive.

the Approximate Constitution

on March 10 the president Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev signed law "About Modification and Additions in the Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan". The document fixed the amendments redistributing powers between branches of the power.

information agency "REGNUM" actively shined the epic with amendments to the Constitution . Let's remind, the constitutional reform in Kazakhstan de facto was started at the end of 2016 on a country Independence Day, on December 16. Then, speaking at solemn meeting, Nursultan Nazarbayev declared need of redistribution of powers between the president, the government and parliament and creation for this purpose of the special commission. Then offered amendments were submitted for national discussion for which exactly a month was taken away. After the final package of amendments which approved republic parliament was developed, approved the Constitutional council and the head of state signed.

In spite of the fact that to a question of the constitutional reforms de facto put the end, in the country discussion of already adopted amendments still proceeds. Tone of discussion, as a rule, the bravura.

For example, at the end of the past week the Kazakhstan mass media published sensational news: the Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko became interested in the Kazakhstan experience of the constitutional reforms. He declared it at a meeting with the chairman Majilis of the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan (lower house) of parliament Kazakhstan to Nigmatulin Nurlan .

"Very often I observe p, I analyze, I try to study experience of activity of your supreme bodies of the power, first of all, the president. This experience is very useful to us. We really very seriously and attentively study your experience. I think that for Kazakhstan it is very important steps which you take for, first of all, preservation of stability and independence of your state. And you are good fellows that in this time difficult for all keep unity of the country" — declared Alexander Lukashenko .

It is expected, in two days interest in the best Kazakhstan practices <= "http://www.inform.kz/ru/belarus-zainteresovana-v-opyte-konstitucionnyh-reform-kazahstana_a3009323"> the scientific community expressed to a href also Belarus .

"Our expert community attentively traces the begun process of the constitutional reforms in Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The Belarusian political scientists are interested in the matter for two reasons. The first has purely practical experience. We hope to make use of the Kazakhstan experience in the future when the political system of RB will rise before need of reforming. The second reason has more the academic, politological character. We take the Kazakhstan experience for comparison with other models on the former Soviet Union: Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian. These models among themselves in favor of what to make a choice are how correlated: presidential republic, parliamentary system or presidential and parliamentary? In this context experience Kazakhstan which passed various stages on a way of creation of super-presidential model of board and then began withdrawal towards parliamentarism development, is in own way unique for Commonwealth of Independent States" — the head of the department of the international relations of Academy of management at President of the Republic Belarus, the doctor of political sciences Kizima Sergei in interview to information agency "Kazinform".

But while the Kazakhstan and Belarusian mass media sang the praises of the constitutional reforms in Kazakhstan, the Russian editions acted with criticism. On a portal of information portal "Gazeta.Ru" on this subject the devastating article was published, in fact, .

"Reform is absolutely deprived by p of any sense. Especially in conditions when the power is organized not on the constitutional model and as in many other authoritative states Middle Asia — defiantly to adopt any law, but not to execute it" — quotes the word edition the editor-in-chief of a portal "Fergana.Ra" Kislov Daniil .

Relying on experience Uzbekistan, he expresses opinion that the constitutional reform will not help to avoid painful transfer of power after leaving Nursultan Nazarbayev.

"Karimov shortly before the death made as p amendments to the constitution which all then estimated as any base for possible in the future of competent transition of the power. There the logic was traced — it was visible that Karimov wants to secure the state — if something happens, the power had to pass to the chairman of the upper house of parliament temporarily. However after Karimov's death the issue of transfer of power was resolved differently. It everything proves that the political model of the western sample which has been got on, as a cap with ear-flaps, on the countries Middle Asia — full properties. Nursultan Nazarbayev can though hundred times to change the constitution, but the power all the same will share inside, and arrangements will consist beyond any constitutional laws" — the expert is sure.

However, scepticism concerning amendments appears and in estimates of some Kazakhstan political scientists. For example, Kaznacheev Maxime in interview to the Kazakhstan portal "Sayasat" declared that the party political field, and also personnel policy hardly will undergo changes after the constitution soon.

"Changes only cosmetic change existing procedure of decision-making. They make sense only within stay Nursultan Nazarbayev on a held post. It is necessary to be the realist and to understand that the successor — the new president will write the new constitution. It already matter of time. For this reason I would not began to attach great value to changes which were accepted in the last one and a half months" — the expert notes.

the Former leader of opposition Communist party Kazakhstan Serikbolsyn Abdildin in the reasonings on the constitutional amendments is even more categorical. According to him, no democracy in Kazakhstan is present and is not planned.

"Just as the frog can not notice how it will cook — if rather slowly to warm up water in a vessel in which it is — and the Kazakhstan society in 25 years did not notice that the Superkhan project generally was already realized. The authorities Kazakhstan say that no such plan for usurpation of the power by Nursultan Nazarbayev and his family exists. But it goes long ago — to an unconstitutional monarchy. Democracies are not present and was not, the autocracy works long ago — the communist is sure .

we Will remind span to p, the Superkhan project was described in 2009 being (accused of the murder, gone to the opposition, emigrated, the arrested and the dead in the Austrian prison — REGNUM news agency information agency "REGNUM" ) the son-in-law of the president Kazakhstan Aliev Rakhat . This plan was allegedly developed by the group of experts , analysts, political scientists under the leadership of the citizen of United States of America the Bulgarian origin Mircheva Alexandra . Within this project the directions which have to create a cult of personality of the president Nursultan Nazarbayev are defined. Among them: development and "mythology" reproduction concerning Superkhan, Superkhan as the engine of peace transition to independence; Superkhan as author of statehood Kazakhstan; Superkhan as initiator and guarantor of nuclear disarmament Kazakhstan and region; Superkhan's indisputable geopolitical role and increase of his international authority; Superkhan's historical role in creation, development and modernization modern Kazakhstan; Superkhan's leadership in modernization and the corresponding integration Kazakhstan in global economy; Superkhan as founder of the new capital; Superkhan's advanced role in fight against corruption in Kazakhstan, and the region, etc.

Those who actively watches news from Kazakhstan, perhaps, already noticed that the lion's share of the events connected with a name of the president of the republic, occurs just within the declared directions. by

Love selling

As it was already spoken in the beginning, Kazakhstan citizens — the very optimistically adjusted nation. The dollar grows, food prices become transcendental, the external debt of the country increases. But it not only is informidable, but also … is uninteresting. Much more news of economy occupy audience, as there passed a duel between a legend of modern Kazakhstan boxing Golovkin Gennady and the American Dzheykobs Deniel or how to live to the man with two wives under one roof. Or why in the Kargalinsky area Aktobe Region is not present any school with the Kazakh language of training ?

Against these news and the hot verbal fights which were developed round them, other subjects simply grow dim. And meanwhile, sometimes they have much bigger value, than all pseudo-news, urged to distract attention, together taken.

For example, a portal "Nomad" published analytical article about a situation in the bank sphere of the republic from which the unambiguous conclusion follows: bank branch is simply in a depressing state . The patient is rather dead, than is live.

"According to the international agencies, the Kazakhstan banking sector especially positive does not wait in the near future for anything. According to S%26P forecast, its situation will be stabilized rather slowly. As last year analysts in spite of the fact that only 7 of 19 Kazakhstan banks to whom scores of Standard & Poor’s are assigned, have "Negative" forecasts noted, in 2016 the number of negative rating actions exceeded number of the positive. The reason — deterioration of indicators of capitalization and liquidity. As declared in agency: "The average level of a long-term rating of the Kazakhstan banks — "In", and in certain cases it includes extra charges for possibility of receiving support from the state or the parent company. Besides, the average rating of the Kazakhstan banks is much lower than level of a sovereign rating "VVV -". We still carry the banking sector Kazakhstan to 8 group on level of branch and country risks (Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment — BICRA; to 1 group banking systems treat with the smallest risks, to 10 group — with the greatest risks)" — it is noted in the publication.

National bank Republics Kasakhstan as repeatedly declared its management, sees rescue of the Kazakhstan banks in association. Moreover, two largest banks Kazakhstan "Qazkom" and "National" already on a merge threshold — probability of the transaction make 80%. Question in the one who from it will win? One of versions of the answer is given in the publication kz.expert portal. Majority owners "will win Joint-stock company "Narodny savings bank Kasakhstan"": Dinar Kulibaeva Dinara and Timur Kulibayevy . To complete the picture it is necessary to explain that Kulibaeva Dinara is the average daughter of the president Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev .

the country population, professional financiers do not believe that such measure becomes panacea as the previous merges of large banks did not improve a situation.

"Megabanks — it is not always good for economy as a whole. World experiment shows the most difficult problems and risks of so-called megabanks, such as to United States of America and Japan. The concept toobigtofail (from English: too big to go bankrupt — REGNUM news agency information agency "REGNUM" ) became outdated; leading editions in the world write about large banks as toobigtomanage (from English: it is too great for management — REGNUM news agency information agency "REGNUM" ) and toobigtotrust (from English: it is too great for trust — REGNUM news agency information agency "REGNUM" ), pointing to problems of management and decrease in client trust to megabanks. There is a wish that Kazakhstan was an exception in this trend, very much I hope for it. It should be noted also that small banks worldwide serve as drivers of innovations. In fact, it is one of conditions of their survival in the conditions of the competition to giants in the market. So, small banks do breaks and appear the most innovative banks in the world, there is enough proguglit, and you will find many names in confirmation to it" — are told about it by the head of Capital Bank Uzbekov Gani .

In turn a portal 365info, arguing on a situation in the currency market of the country, comes to a conclusion that the probability of the next devaluation of national currency in Kazakhstan is quite high :

"In January turns on a swap market came to a mark of $15,313 billion — growth by December made 1,6 times, and by November — by 3,2 times. And here the other day stockbrokers reported that in February the dollar trading volume on a swap market reached $20,412 billion! As it is easy to count, by January growth of February turns made 33,3%, by December — 2,2 times, and by November — 4,2 times. And if dynamics increases here present rates, not far off that moment when the 30-milliard mark will obey stockbrokers! Let's remind that similar sharp activization of turns was observed in recent years twice — before February devaluation of 2014 and much sharper one-stage depreciation of tenge in August, 2015" — spoken in article.

But cannot allow new devaluation. It will harmful affect not only a standard of living of the population of the republic, but also … a demographic situation in the country. Such conclusion arises from article of the expert in the family relations and a demography Zhusupov Zhanat . The expert analysed statistical data and came to an unfavourable conclusion: after tenge devaluation the quantity got married in the country sharply decreased .

"If in 2013 — 2014 citizens were actively combined by p in registry offices, as soon as there was a correction of a course, became more reserved in manifestation of the feelings. There was also a decrease in number of the born children. Today there was a sharp list in thinking of modern men and women. Their values so became attached to dollar and other material benefits that is enough even small crisis that they changed plans for life. Today people are excited by everything, except a family. Here we will take the last wave of discussions on the land question . All reared. And I want to tell: if you do not propagate and breed who will work at this earth? It is clear that people will come from neighboring countries, there are so much working hands. It is necessary to be indignant first of all with that at us birth rate falls! " — the demographer speaks.

On the same portal there is also other curious article. In it data on inflation are provided in Kazakhstan and their comparison with indicators of the Russian inflation. And results of this comparison, alas, not in favor of Kazakhstan.

According to data of Committee on statistics of the Ministry of national economy Kazakhstan, in February annual inflation (in comparison with February of the 2016th) made 7,8%. At the same level there was also average annual (January-February besides to the period of 2016) an inflation. Meanwhile, from data of Rosstat follows that to Russian Federation annual inflation in February developed on a mark of 4,6%, and average annual — 4,8%.

"Russians brought together data on inflation in January over the participating countries of Euroasian economic union and Commonwealth of Independent States. From them it becomes clear that Kazakhstan with annual inflation this month at the level of 7,9% was in one group with Belarus (9,5%), and Ukraine from 12,6% advances them only. If to be guided by the countries of Euroasian economic union, at Russian Federation value of this indicator made 5,0%, Kyrgyzstan — 0,5%, and in Armenia at all there was a decrease in consumer prices, that is a deflation, for 0,6%" — sum up the result in the publication.

the "Wadded" diagnosis

among the "essential" problems of the Kazakhstan society which were more interesting, than economy problems, it appeared also such: to that the known Russian TV host, the journalist Solovyev Vladimir which is going to carry out in April master classes in Kazakhstan will teach Kazakhstan citizens? On the Internet even extensive campaign against arrival Solovyev Vladimir was launched.

"Knew recently that soon to Almaty and Astana there will arrive the Russian journalist Solovyev Vladimir which will hold a seminar "Rigid negotiations, or Art to be the leader! ". Tickets for this action stand from 50 to 300 thousand tenges (from 10 to 60 thousand rub) . It is known that Solovyev Vladimir — the propagandist of the Russian great-power chauvinism. Author of scandalous books "Apocalypse From Vladimir Zhirinovsky", "Gospel from Solovyev Vladimir", "We Russians! With us God! ". How long Kremlin chauvinists will be enriched at our expense? " — were written about it by a kazakhoyazychny portal of qazaquni.kz.

"If to someone it seems to span that in the programs Solovyev Vladimir appeals to violation of territorial integrity only Ukraine sound, he deeply is mistaken. In its program "Sunday Evening" participants repeatedly brought up a question of territorial integrity Kazakhstan, in particular same Vladimir Zhirinovsky did more than once by strong provocative attacks against Kazakhstan in air Solovyev Vladimir . In the same air Solovyev Vladimir one more peculiar figure Satanovsky Eugenie directly declared that "if in Kazakhstan will be the anti-Russian moods probably it Ukraine" will share lot. The leader then did not react in any way, and only thoughtfully encouraged invited "expert". not for the first time to arrange Solovyev Vladimir with public anyway will pour out in the next propaganda hysteria about the bad and mean West both great and "Spravedlivaya Rossiya" (A Just Russia), about fascist banderovskuyu Ukraine and a rising from knees. It is necessary to know Solovyev Vladimir to understand that differently it will not be able. It to edges is filled with an imperial great-power nonsense which will spray with big pleasure, having received any in the slightest degree a leading question from a hall. In itself emergence in Kazakhstan the leading propagandist of the Kremlin and granting possibility of public statements to it is the serious propaganda action directed on maintenance of "wadded and separatist" moods at part of the Kazakhstan citizens — are echoed by the Kazakhstan journalist Duvanov Sergei, known for the intolerant relation to Russian Federation.

the Word "cotton wool" and derivatives from it even more often sound in the Kazakhstan information field. On social networks there are groups of "quilted jackets" and "anti-quilted jackets". National populist without any arguments give the "quilted jacket" status to everyone who does not agree with them on any question: whether it be the status of Russian, the relation Astana and Moscow or influence President of the United States of America Donald Trump on a situation to Middle Asia. by

In broader sense "quilted jackets" in Kazakhstan practically all Russian-speaking population, at least a priori is considered p because does not know the Kazakh language. In practice and among Russian-speaking there are those who to the right and on the left hangs this label.

"Kazakh "antivatnichestvo" observed today is not a product of theoretical development, and there is, in fact, banal (actually household) nationalism which, according to historical logic, can lead sooner or later to the big internal conflict. While at us everything is wrapped in youth flight from Kazakhstan. And youth of all nationalities. Just right to ask a question: "What is cornerstone of this process, so sad for the future of our country? ". The answer more than is obvious: the youth owing to progressive thinking inherent in it perfectly realizes that all opportunities from the point of view of perspective education and technological progress are available not for us, and in more developed countries. Including to Russian Federation. Which besides even for memories of people well today showed more than once ability to reanimation of the potential lost, apparently," — so many "quilted jackets" are told in this respect in the publication " Why among Kazakhstan citizens? ".

Oil

in fire were added by discussion to Russian Federation amendments on simplification of procedure of obtaining nationality. This news in Kazakhstan upset some. Especially as to the majority expressing unclear about what after all in yet not adopted amendments there is a speech.

"In my opinion, from outside Russian Federation which is considered our ally and the partner, is absolutely wrong move. Referring to "the Ukrainian processes", it now includes a time bomb. Simply to you the piece of paper is given, and you can live still in the same Kazakhstan. Such people, I think, we have to consider at once as "the fifth column". Especially as the president Nursultan Nazarbayev told strong about its existence in the country. "The fifth column" at us and so is present, and now they especially will go to us in a crowd. And it is terrible that all this time the national ideology practically did not work for us, the true patriotism was not cultivated, was not paid due attention to the Kazakh language. Be all this, now would not be to be afraid of special need, and now we reap the fruits of the tolerance and desire not to offend the neighbor. And nobody can guarantee that tomorrow Eduard Limonov or to it similar lists of the supporters in Kazakhstan will not begin to make same Eduard Limonov took the wrong step" — the president of the Kazakhstan alliance of bloggers, the public figure Galym Baytuk commented on a situation.

But the specialist in the bilateral relations does not agree with this position between Kazakhstan and Russian Federation Oshakbaev Rakhim :

"I do not think that the similar scenario is possible. Even if to present that it can be used as an occasion, it not the so important. For separatism which you mean, it is possible to find any other occasion. And so we have no territorial disputes with Russian Federation — our ally and the partner. And the last visit of Putin to Kazakhstan showed once again that we have brilliant bilateral relations with Russian Federation" — the expert declares.

the Kazakhstan public figure at all considers as Aydos Sary that already it is time for Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan to hand over to the Russian ambassador a note of protest about it.

to

"Behind it are stood by huge threat. Here it is necessary to pay attention to the following circumstance: if it is an internal problem Russian Federation, in the bill it is necessary to specify accurately that the persons finding the Russian nationality, whether it be ethnic Russian or others, have to refuse nationality of the country of accommodation. And what we see actually? Lack of need of providing the document on refusal of nationality of the country of accommodation, distribution of the Russian passports on the simplified system — it is more similar to provocation" — speaks Sarym.

"Mass distribution of the Russian passports — the first step to establishment of a dual citizenship. If business concerns only ethnic Russians, there is no reason for concern — now in Kazakhstan the specific weight of Russians no more than 19% the majority from which make people of advanced age, that is old men. But after all it is a question of those who was born in the USSR and their descendants. And at us, we will not hide, enough political simpatizant" — suggests to divide on a national sign of potential citizens Russian Federation Gali Azimbay .

I other news

Finishing the review of the past week, there is a wish to list a number of news which did not enter it, but represent a certain interest.

B Kazakhstan man's prostitution prospers. About it reports a kazakhoyazychny portal of alashainasy.kz.

"Men are registered on the special sites publishing their announcements where the photo including genitals are exposed. Their age of 20−30 years. As it became clear, they render services not only to wealthy women, but also men, and also married couples. Their earnings make about 15 thousand tenges at an o'clock (3 thousand rubles) and reach 1000 dollars a month (59 thousand rubles) . Young people engaged in prostitution or students, or staff of various companies. According to them, they came to this "business" incidentally and are engaged in it temporarily" — is spoken in a material.

Polygamy — the only way which will rescue Kazakhs from degradation . the Material with such heading was published by strong past week in the Zamana newspaper.

"Earlier we had no corrupt officials, gays and lesbians, orphans. Nobody left in trouble of widows, there were no beggars and the thrown children. Our girls did not marry Chinese, Blacks and other. And if husbands took the second or third wives, baybishe (the first wives — REGNUM news agency information agency "REGNUM" ) rejoiced only to replenishment. Why now we refuse to understand it and to accept? If Elbasa (the leader of the nation — REGNUM news agency information agency "REGNUM" ) and a pravitelstvouzakonilimnogozhenstvo, we objedinilirazroznenny, obnishchavshiynarod, podnyavegomoralnyydukhi consciousness, chestyi conscience. Allakhi prorokbyliby are happy. Poetomupodderzhimi vospolzuyemsyasvetlymputemallakha, pravednoydorogoyproroka, zavetamipredok! " — writes the edition.

Abai Portal. kz is distressed, what in next Uzbekistan scope of the Kazakh language is narrowed .

" For today in Uzbekistan lives 1 million 093 thousand Kazakhs. In some cities — Tashkent, Navoi, Nukus, Jizzakh — work the Kazakh cultural centers. In higher education institutions — the Tashkent state pedagogical university, teacher's college in Navoi, Nukusky state university — students gain knowledge at faculties of the Kazakh philology or offices of the Kazakh language and literature. But in the oldest higher education institution of the country — TAShMPU of. Bottoms — the faculty of the Kazakh philology to which more than 50 years, it is transformed to office of the Kazakh language and literature at faculty of foreign languages, and has only one office. In the room only 20 sq.m all teachers of chair are compelled to work. Moreover, the administration forbade to hang up portraits of the Kazakh scientists, poets and writers in an office. The most sad — in new academic year on office was not enrollment of students. In a teachers training university on 2, 3 and 4 courses only 52 students study. In this regard the staff of chair is reduced, there were only 3 teachers" — is spoken in the publication.

One more kazakhoyazychny portal of Stan. kz publishes opinion of the writer Kelis Rakhymzhan who offers to make changes to the legislation, allowing to punish citizens for sex without marriage .

"In the country the number of divorces increased. Somehow to settle chaotic intimate relations between free men and women, it is necessary to bring in law "About Marriage" changes. Article containing punishment for "free love" if it becomes clear is necessary that entered the relations are not married. Such it was applied by our ancestors. There were separate punishments for the men who have made adultery and women. Undoubtedly, such article in the law will put to the place of those who too hopes for the money, and also will bring round those who refuses the duties" — the writer offers.

I wants to return to that subject of which it was a question right at the beginning — Nauryz's celebration. On a portal of QASYM.KZ published opinion of a certain priest from Spiritual management of Muslims Kazakhstan who argues, whether <= "http://qasym" """ """> Muslims can note a href Nauryz?

"Some Islamic scientists expressed to strong opinion that Muslims should not celebrate Nauryz. Why? Because before it noted, generally those who worshipped to fire. But this holiday is in the history of various people. At someone it was called as a holiday of spring. However it should be noted at once that it not a religious holiday. Once said that Nauryz — is Muslim new year, but it not so. It is a holiday of the Turkic people, Persians which was celebrated even before Islam arrival. At Kazakhs Nauryz call lysty ң ly kn_ (Great national day). We never connected this holiday with fire, and it is more with national ceremonies" — the priest speaks.

Garanin Grigory

Analysis
×
Nursultan Nazarbayev
Last position: Member of council (Constitutional Council of Republic of Kazakhstan)
4
Alexander Lukashenko
Last position: President of Republic of Belarus (President of the Republic Belarus)
176
Nurlan Zayrullaevich Nigmatulin
Main activity:Politician
3
Gennady Golovkin
Last position: The professional athlete on boxing (International boxing federation)