Latest news of economy Ukraine from 8 till February 15, 2017 of goda
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Privatizatsiya
Glava national anti-corruption bureau Ukraine Sytnik Artem during a briefing last week put forward the version of failure of privatization of the Odessa port plant (the largest chemical plant Ukraine, a terminal point ammiakoprovoda "Tolyatti-Odessa", own terminal of transfer of ammonia): " the Only reason of failure of privatization — is corruption schemes. That we there saw — cannot but shock. On the enterprises hung up a debt and when investigation began, there were first suspects, there were also charges of privatization failure … B than an essence of these schemes, is in detail painted in our report, and even without legal education it is rather clear to persons that actually failure of privatization is not that someone investigates these corruption schemes, namely in these corruption schemes. Would like to remind of it to persons who on these means will organize meetings of people on a frost and try to reduce these events to speculation concerning failure of privatization of state companies ". Let's remind, now the State property fund plans to lease plant.
Sytnik Artem was not limited only to subject OPZ. During a briefing records of telephone conversations from which follows that heads of JSC "OGKHK" (The joint mining and chemical corporation — the company operating a number of state assets of titanic branch)
the Ex-Minister of Economics Ukraine Suslov Victor in the comment to the edition online newspaper "Ekonomicheskie izvestiya" called delays in Ukrspirt concern privatization (the monopolist of spirit branch in Ukraine) with postponement of the decision on granting the next tranche of International Monetary Fund were published: " Ukraine assumed a set of obligations which now, unfortunately, are not carried out. It and the law on a turn of lands selkhoznaznacheniya, and a question of privatization of the largest enterprises — such as the Odessa port plant or Ukrspirt concern. The big complex of questions which are not solved collected. Therefore it is possible to assume that the success in negotiations from International Monetary Fund will not be and soon the decision on granting the next tranche also will not be ".
the People's Deputy Ukraine Kuzhel Alexander adds p to it that the law on privatization of the branch, which vote in parliament allegedly so waits in MINAPK, anything in fact does not change. And the minister perfectly knows of it: " the law Prepared by the ministry on privatization of "Ukrspirt" assumes monopoly preservations. Simply owners change, the brothel both was, and remains, even girls do not change … At them there everything is again written out so that the buyer remains the monopolist, and everything, since druggists, will stand with a cap in hand. We already everything passed it. In such look it is deception, instead of reform " — the politician for Golos.Ua commented.
of Nearly 30% of the state enterprises can shortly get under elimination, the Minister of Economic Development and Trade Kubiv Stepan :
" More than 3500 [state] enterprises which are today in Ukraine, have weak point which is called unprofitability and lack of competitive production in the market … And those enterprises which are not effective and went bankrupt, and such more than one thousand, on them there will be legal decisions up to elimination " — the news agency Ukrainskoye natsionalnoye information company "Ukrinform" transfers words of the minister. .
Valyuta
Pokhozhe that calculations of businessmen with the state on compensation of the VAT and payment of profit taxes are close to end that at once affected exchange rate — they resumed creeping growth. As of February 15 dollar cost 27,23 UAH (%2B0,2 UAH to a course of last week), euro — 28,92 UAH (%2B0,12 UAH), Russian ruble also grew — 0,471 UAH (%2B0,015 UAH) .
On Mezhbank the dollar behaves similarly and again broke a psychological 27-hryvnia barrier: 27,07−27,14 UAH, i.e. grew by 0,21−023 UAH. The only place where the dollar fell in price — the black market: 27,3−27,37 UAH (-0,13−0,15 UAH since last week).
" Demand for currency is, but the offer while prevails " — the head of department of dealing operations JOINT-STOCK COMPANY "RAYFFAYZENBANK" the Aval Grinenko Youri describes a situation for UBR.ua, i.e. calculations with the budget really while are conducted. Demand activization, according to him, is caused by change of currency regulation by National Bank: " Is both demand, and the offer — Mezhbank is balanced. But even if the currency offer will start growing, not the fact that the National Bank exit is required. After all the standard of a currency position — from 0,1% grew from now on to 0,5% of the regulatory capital. So banks will be able to redeem dollar. Trade has to become more active ".
According to NBU data, in January Ukrainians increased rates of purchase of dollar to 144 million dollars (%2B47% by December), however and began to sell to a thicket — 198 million dollars (%2B49,8%). I.e. one joyfully buy up, using a favorable environment, and others gradually live currency accumulation.
International Monetary Fund
the Fund and Government of Ukraine continue to altercate concerning memorandum points. Among new requirements:
— Ukraine agreed on monetization of subsidies. I.e. their sum will be given to recipients (most likely, for special cards in one of the State Banks), and the sums in receipts will be not underestimated for the sum of subsidies, as now, and full. It is not excluded that the monetization of social benefits becomes the following step. Complete with this norm there is a requirement about cancellation of opportunity to pay for ZhKU by installments.
— the simplified system of the taxation, which cancellation demanded International Monetary Fund, it will be kept. However the party found compromise option and decided to toughen conditions for businessmen which want to work in it. "To toughen" — it while everything that is known on this matter, details in the government do not open.
— Ukraine offers p International Monetary Fund not to lift a retirement age, having increased instead a pension experience, i.e. time during which the worker paid to ESV. And, having increased seriously. If today the minimum experience for receiving pension makes 15 years, in plans to lift till 30/35 years (woman/man). Such decision automatically cuts prospect of receiving pension at least for a half of Ukrainians working today as they or work without registration, or worked and work as guest workers in Europe or Russian Federation (the mechanism of payment of ESV for them exists, however very few people use it). And the size of an insurance experience covers now practically all size of able-bodied age and loss even for some years is fraught with loss of the right for pension.
However in Minsotspolitiki Ukraine work with p creative people. The head of the ministry Andrey Reva in interview to the Realist edition suggests Ukrainians … to buy in addition an insurance experience. Meanwhile even in International Monetary Fund became stupid from such offer. " of International Monetary Fund speaks: "Is not present. So it is impossible to do". Why? The person so had circumstances. We had such economic situation. He could not pay sotsvznosy. Different reasons. Now he wants. Let will pay", — are reasoned by the minister.
In International Monetary Fund yet were not defined in the relation neither to the project of pension reform as a whole, nor to its separate elements (like an experience dokupaniye). According to Economic Truth edition data, in Fund for the present insist on the offer to increase retirement age till 63 years.
— the Binding of gas price to a dollar rate. This innovation waits for Ukrainians from the following heating season, and the price will be reconsidered every month. In this season it is possible to relax the last time — the price is recorded and till April will not change. It is possible to illustrate the new principle of formation of a tariff on the example of the current season. Dollar rate in October — about 25 UAH. The course — is higher than 27 UAH today. Means if new norms already worked, heating would cost for 8−9% dearer, than at the beginning of a season.
— One more curious point — reductions of civil servants and state employees. Earlier in International Monetary Fund suggested to reduce quantity of that and others by 10% till 2019 (boundary period of validity of the program of the expanded financing starting in 2015). According to preliminary information, accurate terms and indicators in the memorandum will not be fixed. On the other hand, to the government wishes of creditors are known.
the Executive director Fonda Bleyzera in Ukraine Ustenko Oleg in the comment for UBR.ua reminds that in case the government will not go for accurate performance of conditions of International Monetary Fund, it threatens with two main consequences. First, then it is necessary to involve "the plan of B" Ministry of Finance and to borrow in foreign markets independently at least under 8% per annum — with the corresponding new rounds of a hryvnia exchange rate. Secondly, in two years payment term on eurobonds which Ukraine restructured in 2015 will approach.
the Few adequate Ukrainian experts once again repeat that about partnership Ukraine and International Monetary Fund the speech does not go, moreover — fund, it in fact the usurer, for which that in Kiev pathosly call "strategic cooperation", no more than the transaction. And they are in many respects right. So, not too noticeable requirement of International Monetary Fund, passed by attention of the majority of mass media, became a condition of refusal Ukraine from actions for support of export and creation of science and technology parks, i.e. measures thanks to which to the country the currency is attracted.
the Head of NBU Valeria Gontareva traditionally shifted tranche expectations. Recently she already expected it at the end of 2016, in January, in February. New term — the end the February/the beginning of March. Meanwhile on the next meeting (on February 17) Ukraine in the agenda not znachitsya.
Benzin
Toplivo in retail with an accuracy repeats behavior of foreign currency: slowly, but rises in price. So, motorists should pay now for A-95 liter 24,47 UAH (%2B0,07 to UAH in comparison with last week), A-92 liter — 23,76 UAH (%2B0,03 UAH). Diesel fuel does not lag behind — 22,09 UAH/l (%2B0,02 UAH) .
Moreover, by spring it will simply lag behind, and will escape in leaders. The president of Association of operators of the market of Kosyanchuk Leonid predicts strong that after April increase of an excise on diesel fuel it can outstrip even A-95:
" Increase of the excises, the first which occurred since the January first, the second which will occur since April first — it actually will level even. On my belief, we will have the European situation when diesel fuel will be in the same price, as the 95th gasoline, or even to exceed it ".
In turn, the director of special projects Private enterprise "Scientific and technical center "Psikheya" Gennady Ryabtsev points Ryabtsev Gennady, it became clear that the prices will go up as under sanctions all main suppliers of autogas got to Ukraine " practically. As, the expert continues, all specified companies import not only gas, but also other types of fuel, it is necessary to expect growth of their cost.
About the document to which the expert refers, knew on February 10. On a ministry site it is inaccessible, however the contents as a whole is known. The decree deletes from the market of the liquefied gas at once 17 companies. Reason: " … in connection with criminal production according to Art. 258−5 of UK Ukraine (terrorism financing) ". It is extremely improbable that at once so many companies financed terrorism from what it is possible to allow 2 versions: the specified companies are the connected faces and actually belong to one owners; the companies could deliver to NP at the same time to Ukraine and to Donets Basin, for it they were overtaken by sanctions. It is possible also that charge — a convenient occasion to order the market. As of the end of last year of 70% of the market of the liquefied gas were in a shadow. Any of options for car owners means a rise in prices.
" Soon in the market there will be a deficiency. The Gazpromtrans company Gazpromtrans (delivers about 10 000 tons a month, or 10% of the market of import). Volumes of the importers who have got to lists of Security Service of Ukraine, the existing or new structure with good communications above can replace. We everything already passed it at the time of Kurchenko Sergei [Kurchenko Sergei at the time of Viktor Yanukovych literally for some years managed to earn hundreds millions dollars in the market of the gas, the liquefied gas, oil products; other players of the market suspected that it is patronized by the immediate environment of the ex-president Ukraine — the Edition] " — one of players of the market declared to the edition of social and political online-edition "LB.ua" on conditions anonimnosti.
Raznoye
Soglasno to Gosstat's data. in 2016 surplus of trade balance Ukraine made 338 million dollars, i.e. decreased in comparison with 2015 by 11 times. In other words, it means that export of goods and services in a year fell (46,804 billion dollars to 44,885 billion dollars), and import grew (from 42,976 billion dollars to 44,548 billion dollars) .
In the ministry of economic development reported about reduction of shadow sector of economy: "On predesigns of the Ministry of Economic Development, in January-September, 2016 level of shadow economy made 35% of official gross domestic product that on 5 percentage points it is less in comparison with an indicator of the corresponding period of 2015" — the MEDT press service reports.
Also in MEDT cancelled the December decision on introduction of anti-dumping duties on Russian fertilizer. The decision had to come into force since February 28, however for a half-month in the ministry changed the mind. The reason of it to understand quite simply: the majority of similar plants in Ukraine stand idle (only thanks to it Ukraine managed to reduce gas balance). Therefore now landowners should buy the Russian fertilizers. The irony in that to an euromaidan Ukraine provided itself with fertilizers independently moreover and delivered them on foreign markets. The Russian production also was on sale, however never had an impressive share of the market. And only now the national producer is compelled to be reconciled with loss of domestic market.
C 38,3 to 8,7 billion dollars commodity turnover between Ukraine and Russian Federation from 2013 to 2016 fell. Such data Gosstat published Ukraine. Thus Russian Federation for the present continues to remain the main trade partner Ukraine (11,5% of a turn).
Results of the sotsissledovaniye which has been carried out by the Research %26 Branding Group company in December of last year showed that Ukrainians even more often save on the most necessary things: on clothes and footwear (58%), on products (54%), on treatment and purchase of drugs (37%). Nearly a half of respondents cut off expenses on rest/holiday. Another 30% cut down expenses on household appliances.
According to results of All-Ukrainian poll "A health index. Ukraine-2016", with expenses on treatment of business are approximately as. The truth is more difficult to cut down expenses on health therefore 43% of Ukrainians borrowed money for treatment. It turned out, however, not at all: another 39% of respondents could not get to the doctor because of a lack of means.
Analysis
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Stepan Ivanovich Kubiv
5Main activity:Official
Artyom Sytnik
15Main activity:Official
Valeria Gontareva
7Main activity:Businessman
JSC Raiffeisenbank
70Main activity:Finance
NBU
Main activity:Finance