Seldon.News, the AI-based next-generation news aggregator, has analyzed the news about the COVID-19 coronavirus and detected unique connections and patterns. The obtained data makes it possible to make short- and medium-term forecasts of further spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus and its impact on politics and economy.
The global community is united in the fight against the new COVID-19 coronavirus, the plague of the 21st century. Unprecedented restrictive measures have affected the economic, social, humanitarian and political areas. For the first time in decades the passenger rail and air services have been drastically reduced reminiscing of the Great Plague that swept across Medieval Europe through port cities. However, the restrictions have bypassed seaports even though 80% of world trade is done using water transport.
The Seldon.News artificial algorithms, having analyzed the media reports and information in open sources, have noted the high risks of incidence in European port areas. A study of the coronavirus spread dynamics shows a high concentration of the incidence in large coastal transport and logistics hubs.
No measures have been undertaken to restrict the shipping of goods, even though sea transportation accounts for 80% of global trade, about 50% of which accounts for the Asia-Pacific countries.
As a possible consequence, coronavirus cases in new countries are reported almost every day with the exception of the Central African countries that are basically cut off from world trade and logistics.
The Seldon.News AI-algorithms predict with high probability that a second wave of the COVID-19 coronavirus spread will occur starting in the European seaports. France, Germany, Spain and Norway are in the heightened risk zone.
There is a certain correlation between the arrival of transport vessels from China and the coronavirus outbreak at the destination ports taking into account the long incubation period of the virus.
France
Singapore Express Voyage No16, Chinese vessel will arrive in French port Fos-sur-Mer on March 9
Oakland Express Voyage No46, Chinese vessel will arrive in French port Fos-sur-Mer on March 16
Halifax Express Voyage No14, Chinese vessel will arrive in Fench port Fos-sur-Mer on April 6
Oocl Europe Voyage No11, Chinese vessel will arrive in French port Fos-sur-Mer on April 6
Spain
Seaspan Ningbo Voyage No24, Chinese vessel arrived in the port of Valencia on March 7
Singapore Express Voyage No16, Chinese vessel will arrive in the port of Valencia on March 13
Oakland Express Voyage No46, Chinese vessel will arrive in the port of Barcelona on March 18 and the port of Valencia on March 20
Norway
OOCL Busan, Chinese vessel will arrive in Norwegian port Brevik on March 18
Germany
GRANDE ISLAND, Chinese vessel (Hong Kong) will arrive in the port of Bremen on March 9
QIAN KUN, Chinese vessel will arrive in the port of Bremen in March (date unknown)
SHARK ISLAND, Chinese vessel (Hong Kong) will arrive in the port of Bremen on March 26
Seldon.News has detected the correlation between the COVID-19 coronavirus and aquatic environment in the media:
- Discussions around the origin of the virus and its modes of transmission, namely the possibility of its transmission through water;
- Analysis of the Diamond Princess ship situation and possible recurrence of a similar scenario on other cruise ships;
- Analysis of the map of infected countries (the vast majority of infected countries have access to the sea, while in some isolated cases the infection has occurred only in coastal areas).
The Seldon.News AI-algorithms have analyzed the WHO statistics and noted the exponential increase in incidence after the 600 cases threshold has been crossed.
Uncontrolled explosive increase in incidence poses an additional risk to the coronavirus spread as it requires the introduction of stringent restrictive measures as soon as the virus emerges. However, governments are wary of introducing tougher economic measures to restrict travel. Maritime logistics is the basis of world trade of goods and, in part, energy resources. Amid the adverse effects of coronavirus on industry with China being the main driver of its growth and stock exchanges in almost all regions, a complete halt in maritime logistics raises concerns about a possible paralysis of the global economy.