on August 14, information agency "IrkutskMedia". "Party race" on elections in Legislative assembly of Irkutsk region can be much more interesting, than "fight of single-mandate MPs", considers the political scientist Shmidt Sergei . Parties already there began advertizing campaigns, however a victory of one only "outdoor advertizing" it is not supposed. Searches guilty in "to pension reform" become key factors in this electoral cycle and competent propaganda, considers the specialist in public relations Shindyaev Wladyslaw . Opinions of experts on "party derby" at parliamentary elections were learned by information agency "IrkutskMedia".
the Real competition
Before estimating chances of each party, Shmidt Sergei said some conceptual reasons: competitions of party lists on these elections it is represented to me the main, really real intrigue on these elections, and besides it is contrast that occurs in one-mandatory districts.
— If attentively to peer at districts, in my opinion, about three quarters from them can assume the winner rather surely. And really the competition to unpredictable result is looked through, in fact, in three-four districts, it is no more. That is we will tell so, for one-mandatory districts popcorn is not necessary, but double popcorn can be bought observing competition of party lists — Shmidt Sergei told.
Shindyaev Wladyslaw paid attention that parties already began an active advertizing campaign and is expected mudflows on the oppositional agenda and a subject of antinational laws. This subject, the expert considers, they will advance further, trying to gather to itself a rating on the all-federal agenda.
— the Only thing that I want to tell — at the majority of parties simply does not suffice resources to launch campaign on all region. Therefore the majority of small parties works locally. It naturally will affect results of elections. One outdoor advertizing not to win elections. Printing materials are necessary, but is far not all parties have resources for their distribution in the region territory. As far as they will reach the voter as far as the voter will like, will show time. While it is difficult to tell something: campaign only began — Shindyaev Wladyslaw commented.
Now we will explain
Besides, vote per lot influences not only passing to Oblastnoy parlament above-mentioned people. If any party gathers enough of voices in the district, the candidate can get to Legislative Assembly from territorial group (all such candidates from all parties — 672). We will not list all of them, of course — it is possible to study this extensive list on a site SAS Vybory .
"United Russia" Party: zone of turbulence
the all-regional three entered the acting speaker of Legislative assembly of Irkutsk region Sergei Brilka, the adviser to the president of GARAGE COOPERATIVE "ROSTEKH" Sokol Sergei and the deputy of ZS, the director of Irkutsk aircraft factory Ratnikov Alexander Veprev.
toaccording to Shmidt Sergei, "United Russia" Party there is a technological task — otpozitsionirovatsya from "pension reforms".
— This task can be solved through successful criticism of Communist Party of the Russian Federation, and, it seems to me, "United Russia" Party went on this way. Let's call it so — it is necessary to pull out quite large number "skeletons in a party case", to stake on exposure of hypocrisy of Communist Party of the Russian Federation, to show that the party of workers, as a matter of fact, conducts in ZS far not workers. That is to break the opponent such convincing criticism. I want to emphasize that if this task will be solved, no additional voter on elections of ZS will appear, and at an appearance at the level of 2013 (it when the different hypochondriac people connected with party staffs generally vote), at "United Russia" Party there is a chance not that to repeat the result of 2013, and to show it at the communist governor — Shmidt Sergei considers.
Shindyaev Wladyslaw noted that while the party in power places emphasis on already reached results. However while at "United Russia" Party "negative dynamics of growth of a rating" is observed.
— If to speak about launching sites, "United Russia" Party does a rating on any reached results and that they actually carry out a lot of work, not especially position the programs and achievements. Thus the party has a huge anti-rating — Shindyaev Wladyslaw commented.
by words of the political scientist Zimin Maxime , it is not necessary to be the cool sociologist to record a collapse of a rating "United Russia" Party, connected with responsibility of federal Party members for vote apropos, "pension reforms".
Communist Party of the Russian Federation: fight with "pension reform"
the all-regional three included the acting deputy of ZS, chapter Communist Party of the Russian Federation, general director SPK "Usolsky svinokompleks" Sumarokov Ilya; the acting deputy of ZS, the chairman of committee on property and economic policy Nosenko Olga and the acting deputy of ZS, the secretary of the Angarsk city town committee of party Brenyuk Sergei.
As were noted by Shmidt Sergei before it was declared pension reform, he was one of those political scientists who rather surely predicted on percent a victory "United Russia" Party over Communist Party of the Russian Federation.
pension reform" happened— But here to communists on pleasure ", and now the question costs, in my opinion: Whether "Communists will manage to use pension reform competently political strategy? " Hints on it are — all local United Russia party members are declared responsible for this bill. Whether they will manage to attract on elections of voters which, in general, on elections of Legislative assembly do not go because they are not really interesting to them. For example, if it is possible to convince voters that Putin of 100 times will think before signing "pension reform" if sees low results "United Russia" Party to Irkutsk Region then why and is not present. Once again I repeat, it is a technological task, it will be solved or not, probably, until the end of August it will be difficult to answer this question — Shmidt Sergei declared.
Shindyaev Wladyslaw told that the protest agenda will be fulfilled by all parties, but Communist Party of the Russian Federation now most successfully drew it on itself.
— Launching sites are today at "United Russia" Party and Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Two factors which will define elections: first, all protest agenda is eaten by Communist Party of the Russian Federation which acquired channels of distribution of propaganda materials and a regional network, participating in elections of the last political seasons. The party has opportunity not only to form the position, but also to inform it to the voter that many other parties are deprived. Secondly, the outdoor advertizing works only in the cities and at federal highways. On places, in small settlements, political advertizing still practically is not present. And here it is necessary to inform the position to the voter, and small parties have with it problems — Shindyaev Wladyslaw commented.
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia: grown up
the All-regional three of liberal democrats are headed by the party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky (it is necessary to understand that he will refuse the mandate in favor of the second number in the all-regional list). Further there is developments manager LLC "TERRITORIAL GENERATING COMPANY" Tyutrin Dimitri and the deputy of Thought of municipality of City Bratsk Popov Oleg.
Zimin Maxime considers that Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, can apply for bigger percent, than on elections in ZS of a sample of 2013.
— to Liberal democrats it is optional toto conduct bright campaign. Favorably demographic change affects, that is people who were imposed by Vladimir Zhirinovsky and which on elections did not go 10 years ago to power of the age, now stepped over a certain age boundary and became voters. Having a post-electoral picture of the previous elections in State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation and Legislative Assembly, we see the most essential gain at a minimum of intellectual and financial expenses — Zimin Maxime commented.
"A Just Russia" Party: because not "United Russia" Party
In the all-regional three of Social Revolutionaries the deputy of City thought Irkutsk, the head of regional office of party Yegorova Larissa, the deputy of Thought of municipality of City Bratsk Gaskov Alexander and the deputy of the Duma Shelekhova Marina Komarova.
Shmidt Sergei could not predict, than "A Just Russia" Party can help a present situation with area, but sees traces of the local campaign reminding 2011.
— That is will come to vote for any party, except "United Russia" Party, and there is an important point — by 2011 we know that people who absorb this appeal, are closer to democratic belief, and go to vote for "A Just Russia" Party as communists are not close to them owing to, for example, formal neostalinism — Shmidt Sergei noted.
Zimin Maxime predicted "A Just Russia" Party from one to three mandates in the third convocation of Legislative assembly of Irkutsk region.
— If the situation will be even more favorable, can there will pass all first three. It is worth stipulating one moment: "A Just Russia" Party has purely city electorate therefore key place will be taken here by an appearance in the cities. But it is necessary to tell that "A Just Russia" Party while very passively conducts the campaign, but the reason that the party did not acquire normal monetary resources — Zimin Maxime commented.
Civil platform: Bitarov Alexander and team
toIn the all-regional party three are presented the ex-chairman of Government of Irkutsk region Bitarov Alexander, the acting deputy of ZS Yegorova Anastasia (it was chosen in Legislative Assembly of the second convocation according to "United Russia" lists "United Russia" Party) and the chief physician of clinic of integrative medicine Dydykin Artem.
— "Civic Platform" Party it is obvious while stakes on several single-mandate MPs — Shmidt Sergei told.
Zimin Maxime declared that the party is played into the hands by a collapse of ratings "United Russia" Party and participation of two bright figures — Bitarov Alexander and Yegorova Anastasia.
"Homeland": to reach the voter
Party the acting deputy of ZS, the director "Present tothe Ylym fuel and energy companies" Dubas Anatoly (which, we will remind, passed in Oblastnoy parlament the second convocation as the candidate "United Russia" Party, but this year lost primaries and left party ), the head of local office of "Homeland" Yevdokimov Maxime and the deputy of Thought of municipality of City Bratsk Nikolay Ochkas.
— From nine declared parties were registered by only seven parties, and it after all reduces number of parties which simply take away voices in anywhere, it will add voices to major candidates. This favorable decision for those political parties which seriously participate in these elections — was noted by Shmidt Sergei.
Shindyaev Wladyslaw told that to "Homeland" to reach the voter, first, it is necessary to choose the foreshortening, secondly, to carry out large-scale common regional campaign.
Zimin Maxime called feature of these elections that people who did not find itself on places through passage "United Russia" Party, went not self-promotion, and through other parties.
— Small parties move ready deputies:" "A Just Russia" Party – Tyumenev Oleg ", the Homeland" – Dubas Anatoly, "Civic Platform" Party – Yegorova Anastasia. It, of course, for some time creates feeling of their strengthening, but for "Homeland" with its initially low starting rating to break through according to the list, without looking even at Dubas Anatoly, it will be very much heavy — the expert summarized.
CPSU: red color and Uglyanitsa Sergei
present toCommunist Party of Social Justice Prokofyev Maxime, general director LLC "Rosleseksport", the former deputy of the Duma Usolye-Sibirskoye from Communist Party of the Russian Federation Uglyanitsa Sergei (left Communist Party of the Russian Federation because of discontent with a policy of the party) and general director LLC "REGION-T" Klyuev Alexander.
Here Shmidt Sergei, on own expression, dared to argue proceeding from quasifantastic forecasts which are that, in principle, is possible that following the results of September 9 we will receive five-party parliament and, who knows, the six-party can even.
— Such feeling that CPSU is not inferior in activity to status parties. Once again I will repeat, the six-party parliament if it at us happens, will be the only thing to Russian Federation. Has to tell that as on the voter the great value is rendered by color scale of advertizing, the CPSU red color, probably, will work on additional votes for Communist Party of the Russian Federation — Shmidt Sergei told.
Zimin Maxime noted that this time in Election commission of the Irkutsk region there passed good lot which prevents CPSU to select many voices at Communist Party of the Russian Federation. However "alternative communists" have one real candidate for a deputy chair.
— Many abused Communist Party of Social Justice for a spoylerstvo, (it, in principle, and conducts spoylersky campaign), but there is one person — the former deputy of the Duma Usolye-Sibirskoye Uglyanitsa Sergei. It is rather known as the nonconformist who always spoke against swindlers of any color that blue that red, and criticized always as "United Russia" Party, and communists. Therefore Uglyanitsa Sergei — is plus for CPSU. However now the party will stand according to the list below, than Communist Party of the Russian Federation — means difficult to hope for good percent of votes — Zimin Maxime commented.