"Emperor" earns, the people suffer: Ukraine — results of year in economy

of gross domestic product

of Full data on gross domestic product of Ukraine in the 2017th year, naturally, for the present not. However the comparative statistics on the first three quarters 2016 and in the prices of 2016 shows 2017 the following.

1. Nominal gross domestic product for January-September made 821,28 billion UAH (%2B125,64 billion UAH or %2B15,3% in terms of the real prices of 2016). However at least 12,5% (January-November) of this sum are made by an inflationary rating.

2. It means that inflation in 11 months 2017 for 0,1% already exceeded inflation for all 2016 (12,4%) . Also it should be noted that National bank Ukraine in 2017 corrected the inflation forecast twice, consistently changing it from 8% to 9,1%, and then to 12,2%. Fitch Ratings Ltd. at the end of November predicted that following the results of a year inflation in Ukraine will disperse to 13,7%.

the Forecast for 2018 was taken out by

also at the end of 2016 (6%), however in October of 2017th it reconsidered to 7,3%. Whether it will be possible this time to workers of National bank Ukraine to be exact? Doubtfully, considering that in budget the average annual rate of 29,3 UAH/dollars and 30,1 UAH/dollars for the end of 2018 is put. Considering that in 2018 Ukraine entered with a rate of 28,06 UAH/dollars, one only devaluation of national currency creates prerequisites for inflation at least in a half of expected value. Fitch Ratings forecast — 9,1%. However, we still will return to a hryvnia exchange rate and inflation.

Purely statistically Government of Ukraine will be able to be praised by GDP growth in dollar calculation. The matter is that the average annual hryvnia exchange rate to dollar, contrary to expectations, was rather low. Let's remind, in the budget-2017 it was established at the level of 27,2 UAH/dollars, however at the end of January, 2017 it fell below this value and exceeded it only on December 5, falling to 25,45 UAH — an absolute annual maximum to which the hryvnia managed to become stronger after almost continuous 7-month falling of cost of dollar. In combination with nominal GDP growth it can lead to that GDP growth in a dollar equivalent will be more, than in hryvnia. In the internal use is special benefit will not bring, however it will be useful for the government in attempts to borrow money in foreign markets : in 2017 the minister of finance Danilyuk Alexander repeatedly declared intention to cease to borrow at International Monetary Fund and to return to practice of placement of bonds.

However as it was already told, strengthening did not help hryvnia. For September-December it "handed over" all won positions. In comparison with January 1, 2017 the dollar is 0,87 UAH more expensive.

fuel Cost in retail networks

2017 will be remembered to Ukrainians by very notable jump of cost of fuel. If we take the last recorded "A-95 consulting group the average prices of gas station (on December 29), it will turn out that in a year added A-98 liter in the cost of 4,32 UAH (to 28,24 UAH/l), A-92 — 5,09 UAH (to 27,5 UAH/l), diesel fuel — 4,84 UAH (to 26,03 UAH/l). Let's remind that fuel cost in Ukraine is influenced at once by 3 main indicators: the current cost of oil defining selling price of importers, dollar rate — currencies of the conclusion of contracts for import, and an euro exchange rate — currencies of calculation of size of an excise. Thus, falling of cost of fuel — a situation almost improbable for Ukraine, after all one of these variables always grows.

fuel Cost, in turn, becomes a powerful contribution to inflation promotion as it is put in the price of any goods on the shelf of shops. Considering the sounded average expected course and cost of the oil which has reached by the end of 2017 67 dollars/Barre, the Ukrainian motorists should prepare for 35 UAH/l of A-95 by the end of 2018 and 31 UAH for diesel fuel liter. With the corresponding consequences for the prices of the others goods.

Are long and credits

the Public debt Ukraine in 2017 continued to grow. For January 1, 2017 it made 70,97 billion dollars. From January till beginning of November, i.e. in 10 months, it increased by 5,617 billion dollars, i.e. to 76,288 billion dollars. Government of Ukraine attracted 3,646 billion dollars at external creditors and 1,971 billion dollars — within the country. It differs from practice of 2016. Then, on the contrary, about 3,3 billion dollars occupied within the country, and other 2,1 billion — it generally tranches of International Monetary Fund.

this year at International Monetary Fund, consider did not borrow: gave practically as much, how many obtained in credit. The most part from the raised funds — is eurobonds for the sum of 3 billion dollars under 7,35% per annum for 15 years. As the director of the Ukrainian analytical center Okhrimenko Alexander , a rate very attractive, especially in comparison with average profitability of dollar deposits in Ukraine notes, bonds making at the time of placement 3,7−3,8%.

Why the government is credited and seeks to be credited by

abroad under 7,35% what is twice more expensive than the actual cost of attraction of currency within the country and about 1,5 times more expensively, than tranches of International Monetary Fund?

From International Monetary Fund it is clear to

. Them credits are tied on political obligations. Let's tell, for receiving money from Fund in 2017 it should open the earth market, carry out pension reform (it carried out, but the Fund still has to it questions), to raise a tariff for natural gas for the population, to adopt laws on anti-corruption court. It is obviously impracticable.

can be assumed only Further, however the assumption Okhrimenko Alexander looks very plausibly.

"… eurobonds can without special problems by means of foreign brokers appear on offshore accounts of our People's Deputies and mistresses of ministers. As a result very amusing business . Government of Ukraine will pay big percent into offshore accounts, thereby helping persons, "approached to the emperor", on it to make good money while the Ukrainian people will constantly listen about reforms … Perhaps this opportunity to use the Ukrainian eurobonds for offshore schemes also became that a factor which stimulates Government of Ukraine more to think of the income of foreign investors, than of the income of Ukrainians? " — the expert reflects.

Anybody, certainly, does not prevent to issue internal bonds and to establish on them the same profitability. However it is simpler to trace acquisition of internal bonds, besides it is interfaced to need to carry out the large sums in currency through a banking system of Ukraine. Without saying that in any force majeur circumstances of the eurobond will be quoted more expensively: higher return guarantees, are lower discount. generally if it is possible to credit gradually degrading Ukraine under good percent — why it not to do ?

However, it should be noted that it not a uniform position of the Kiev authorities. The National Bank, on the contrary, insists on continuation of cooperation from International Monetary Fund. It is difficult to tell what of two positions in this case for Ukraine is worse: frank plundering of budgetary funds through high percent on the external credits or the cheap credit in exchange for political and economic pressure from outside International Monetary Fund. As they say, both are worse.

the Relation national debts to gross domestic product in 2017 also grew. until there is no exact information on gross domestic product, it is possible to speak about this dynamics only relatively. Under the certificate of the ex-member of council of National bank Ukraine Trubarov Vitaly Lomakovich , the actual national debt Ukraine — is about 84% of its gross domestic product . For the beginning of 2017 the relation national debts to gross domestic product made 81%. Let's remind that International Monetary Fund considers critical border in 60%.

the population Income

Average salary across Ukraine in 11 months 2017 made 6953 UAH. As the average course in a year is not known yet, we will use higher course put in budget (27,2 UAH/dollars) and we will receive 255,6 dollars . In a hryvnia equivalent average z/p in 2017 is 1765 UAH higher, than in the 2016th. Recalculation of average z / and at the "budgetary" course (24,1 UAH/dollars) will give 2016 us 215 dollars. On the one hand, this recalculation and a difference in 40 dollars are conditional as the real average course in 2016 was above the specified value in the same way as in 2017 — it is lower than 27,2 UAH. With another at the expense of it growth of average z/p in 2017 concerning the 2016th approximately so much (35−40 dollars) also makes.

Most past year were earned, certainly, by inhabitants of the capital (10 870 UAH). It is most less, already traditionally — inhabitants Ternopil Region (5435 UAH). Thus, according to Ukrstat's data, only 3 kinds of activity in Ukraine are capable to provide the monthly average income over 10 thousand UAH: civil aviation, information and telecommunications, financial and insurance activity. The statistics operates with average data, however is in the same way true that not all inhabitants of Kiev are occupied in aircraft, a telecom and the bank sphere. Comparison of these usrednennost says to us that norm in Ukraine on former there are shadow salaries.

the Minimum salary experts consider

as one more factor of high inflation past year. Let's remind, since the beginning of January it was raised to 3200 UAH, i.e. twice in comparison with 2016. Since January, 2018 it increased to 3723 UAH, and from the second half of year can grow to 4100 UAH. To make the relevant decision, by words President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, the government will be following the results of the I half-year. There were also more courageous plans (5400 UAH), however in International Monetary Fund they were not approved.

Export

Indicators external trades Government of Ukraine also can be proud of

frostily. For January-October goods for the sum of 35,2 billion dollars are exported. For comparison: for all 2016 from export of goods Ukraine received 36 billion dollars. Therefore, in the 2017th year the Ukrainian enterprises will gain about 42 billion dollars.

"Among the main trade partners of Ukraine in export of goods in January-October, 2017 — the countries EU with the specific weight of 40,2% in a total amount of export of goods, Russian Federation — 9,3%, Turkey — 5,7%, India — 5,2%, China — 4,6%, Egypt — 4,3%, Belarus — 2,6%, United States of America — 1,9%, Moldova — 1,6%, Iran — 1,4%", — noted in the Ministry of Economic Development.

However other indicators grew also. So, negative balance external trades for the same 10 months grew to 4,573 billion dollars (by 2,2 times in comparison with the similar period of 2016). I.e. import grew even faster rates, than export.

last year the balance left in plus due to export of services, generally — transit of the Russian gas to the European consumers. This year, according to the statement National joint-stock company "Naftogaz Ukraine", transit was record — 93 billion cubic meter (so many Ukraine did not pump over since 2011). However even this income can be insufficient. Dynamics of the foreign trade balance says it is necessary what to cover about 5−5,5 billion dollars. Dynamics of export of services allows to be put on approximately 5 billion dollars. Thus, at best external trade following the results of 2017 leaves in zero. In the worst — will give on some honeycombs of millions dollars

we Will remind

, 2016 Ukraine finished with result %2B336 one million. The dollar rate put in budget, indicates rather the second option.

In commodity structure of export of Ukraine tendencies already known to us amplified. 41,3% of currency revenue (January-September) are received from sale of production of agrarian sector, 23% — a metallurgical complex, 11,5% — mechanical engineering, 9,5% — mineral raw materials. Thus, on these 4 export articles are necessary over 85% of consolidated revenues.

Privatization

past year to Government of Ukraine over again was not succeeded to start

so-called. "big privatization". At first the State property fund remained without the management: his former head retired after persistent hints of the prime minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Groysman . Inability to start state property sale in scales which would suit Cabinet of Ministers and International Monetary Fund became the reason of hints just.

Long time to the State property fund could not find the new head. The present acting head of FGI Trubarov Vitaly appointed only at the beginning of September whereas previous ( Bilous Igor ) retired in April. This time could be considered spent for nothing, if not the ministry of economic developments. Its management together with the interim head of FGI started development of the new law on privatization. As occupied the rest of year: the parliament approved the bill only in December. Certainly, sale of all significant objects was suspended.

Thus, Trubarov Vitaly rescue from resignations at once 2 moments. First, 4 months work only. Secondly, there are no sales, but there is a new law, it too result. Besides absolutely failure for FGI too language does not turn to call. the Plan of privatization is implemented only for 19,7% (3,376 billion UAH), however it honor in 18 times more, than in 2016. it was succeeded to Exceed plan non-performance generally due to sale of equity stakes of several regional power Ukraine: just they also brought to FGI about 3 billion UAH However, the present deputy. to all this no relation has almost (the regional power sold in August, the bill as a whole was ready by the beginning of July).

as a whole FGI transferred into budget Ukraine 5,346 billion UAH (twice more, than in 2016). The plan for the income from rent of state property of FGI also did not implement (1,6 and 1,052 billion UAH respectively). However the income from rent all the same exceeded an indicator of 2016 (1,027 billion UAH).

before a position should be told Trubarov Vitaly there is already whole class of officials in the rank of the acting as. Never before them was in such quantity on such high posts. Never earlier as the deputy officials worked for months.

"Heads of these structures specially are not appointed that "acting as" was people dependent on politicians. Someone can be at any time appointed another. Thus, always there is an opportunity to replace them if they do not that it is necessary for politicians, — are told by the honourable president of the Kiev school of economy Milovanov Timofey in the comment for website "Deutsche Welle" — All this significantly slows down reforms. The markets do not understand that occurs, they have no confidence that the policy of this ministry, the regulator or state company and their rule of the game sharply will not change. It means that the markets invest more carefully".

to the Government Volodymyr Groysman definitely should pay attention to opinion of the expert. In particular considering that in 2018 the plan for privatization is increased with 17,1 to 22,5 billion dollars

By implementation of the plan of privatization in 2018 one more circumstance can affect.

"I am very concerned by destiny of the enterprises with which privatization their governing bodies hesitate. If them do not transfer to Fund for sale, with a big share of probability they will fill up the list of 1225 enterprises which already are forever lost for the state, i.e. will be liquidated" — Vitaly Trubarov at the end of September declared to Trubarov Vitaly

of the Acting head of FGI noted that from nearly 100 enterprises. which are subject to FGIU transfer under the governmental privatization decree, is transferred less than ten.

According to the plan of the authorities, the first for 2018 on sale equity stakes of 8 enterprises ("Ukrnefteprodukt", "the Stebnitsky mining and chemical enterprise "Polimineral", "Ukrkhudozhprom", "the Borispolsky enterprise "Sortnasinneovoch", "Belotserkovsky zavod rezinovykh tekhnicheskikh izdely", "The scientific and technical test center "Spektr-T", "Brailovskaya baza hraneniya i realizatsii sredstv zashchity rasteny", state enterprise "brailovskoye") with the total estimated cost of 40 million UAH will go. Their sale will take place on January 17−23.

to Sell

at FGI it turns out not really, but it turns out to return, i.e. to nationalize. In December Kiev appeal economic court confirmed the decision vessels the lowest instance in claims Fund about cancellation of contracts "Ukrtelecom" purchase and sale (the operator of fixed and mobile telecommunication, Internet, a cable television). Company was it is sold in 2011 for 10,5 billion UAH, and to property of the state it returned under the pretext of non-performance of investment obligations. the new owner — company "ESU" controlled by the oligarch Rinat Akhmetov .

Too not the best background for a year of big privatization, after all at first it is necessary to explain to potential buyers that so in Ukraine arrive not with all new owners of state property, but only with "ideologically alien" the postmaydanny power.

the Ukrainian banks

the Banking system is restored by

, consider in National bank Ukraine, and in 2018 even will show profitability. However, the banking system showed profitability in 2017, but small — 1,43 billion UAH following the results of January-September. The picture is spoiled by 17 of 88 banks with a cumulative loss of 10,98 billion UAH the most part from which is the share of affiliated structures of the Russian banks.

past year to the Ukrainian banks managed to install a world record by the size of the problem credits (58%). Such result is recorded in July, however by the beginning of December this indicator fell to 54,9%. Partially — due to the general growth of a credit portfolio.

the Problem credits are distributed by

unevenly. Most of all — at the State Banks where even in the end of the year this share exceeded 70% (!) . Least of all — in banks with the private capital (24,2%). Banks with the foreign capital have 43,4%. Generally it besides the Russian banks as the majority of the European banks left the market of Ukraine even following the results of crisis of 2008−2009

the Share of the problem credits could be more, but strategy change here played a role. For 2017 we repeatedly paid attention to decrease in profitability on deposits: for a year of a rate fell from 16−18% to 10−13% (in hryvnia).

"The bank sphere, by and large, deposits from the population are not necessary to

. She was disappointed in private investors and does not chase any more their money, as earlier. Banks now receive resources from National bank Ukraine through system of refinancings. Put them in valuable state papers, and so the system provides itself", — are approved in the comment to the Segodnya newspaper by the Doctor of Economics, professor Yaremenko Oleg .

Is at banks and other source of earnings. Considering that external trade Ukraine is rather monotonous (grain, metal, vegetable oil, iron ore raw materials) and is subject to known seasonal fluctuations (business cycles of exporters and agricultural, purchase energy carriers) — it is possible to earn on seasonality of supply and demand of currency.

this situation can Change only when after rates on deposits banks will start reducing credit rates. Earlier experts expected them decrease to the middle of 2018, basing these conclusions on gradual decrease in discount rate of National bank Ukraine for 2017. However in the end of the year in response to inflation jump in National bank Ukraine were compelled to increase it from 13,5% to 14,5%, without having excluded and further growth. Therefore reset of the bank credits is postponed for the uncertain period.