Gift for Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia): the ruble exchange rate calmed inflationary expectations

the Annual target reference point Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) on inflation — 4%. The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2017 makes 3,8%. At preservation of a current rate of dollar inflation following the results of 2017 can appear even lower than 3,5%, the Minister of Economic Development Maxime Oreshkin is optimistical. "It is a big signal for Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia)" — he considers ( the quote on daily business newspaper "RBK daily" ). By words Maxime Oreshkin, the ruble significantly became stronger for the last weeks, and at preservation of the current exchange rate inflation will be even lower.

Thanks to decrease in inflationary expectations at Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) is been now actually given a free hand, Oleg Solntsev considers. The main fears connected with a situation in in July when the ruble exchange rate began adjustment, were not confirmed, he explains: "A ruble exchange rate — the major pro-inflationary factor". Inflationary expectations follow an exchange rate, analysts specify PUBLIC JOINT-STOCK COMPANY ROSBANK.

by data Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia), the average ruble exchange rate to dollar in June made 57,89, in July — 59,69, in August — 59,61.

Adapted for a rise in prices

Fine tuning of perception of inflation by the population to the current price level on the average occurs slowly, but most quicker it goes in a segment to cheaper and often bought , analysts specify PUBLIC JOINT-STOCK COMPANY ROSBANK. According to their data, full and fast fine tuning happened in a limited circle of food which has signs of the "anti-recessionary" buffer, and here in group of meat and fish production adaptation lasted more than two years, and only since the beginning of 2017 came according to the actual inflation. In group of nonfood the positive trend on rapprochement of registered and perceived inflation, however a gap was set remains big and can take more time in connection with the slow growth of the nominal income, analysts specify PUBLIC JOINT-STOCK COMPANY ROSBANK.

Pro-inflationary risks still remain, recognizes Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia). In the country yet zayakoreny — them important not only to reduce inflationary expectations, but also to hold at acceptable level, emphasizes Julia Tseplyaeva: "It is impossible to take the first positive signals for achievement of a target reference point".

of the Politician Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia), despite decrease in inflationary expectations, will remain rigid, believes Julia Tseplyaeva: it is necessary for the regulator zayakorit these expectations — it is a priority therefore to count on radical decrease in a key rate it is not necessary. According to its forecast, Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) will lower a rate in September and December, but in 2018 decrease in a rate will go more slowly.

of 18% Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) waits for deterioration of a situation

by data, in August estimates of change of financial position for the last year improved. The share of those who considers that their financial position in a year worsened, decreases since the beginning of 2016. However improvement of financial position is noted by only small share of respondents (12%). The majority of respondents (55%) is traditional speak about its invariance, states the regulator.

of the Share of those who expects improvement and deteriorations of financial position in the next 12 months are practically at one level (20 and 18% respectively). Respondents spoke about need to save on daily expenses less often, specifies the regulator.

by data Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia), improvement of financial position affected a situation with savings: the share of respondents who managed though something to postpone for the last month, returned to level of the middle of 2014 when this question started setting Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) Consumption finds

support in the steady growth of real and improvement of credit conditions, analysts specify PUBLIC JOINT-STOCK COMPANY ROSBANK.

expenditure

by data Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia), the population still adheres to savings model of behavior. To it points balance of answers about usefulness of the current time for large purchases which since the beginning of 2015 remains in negative area.

But the regulator specifies that results of August poll indicate the gradual growth of optimism of the population that will be coordinated with dynamics of an index of consumer moods which kept a tendency to growth. The maximum optimism of respondents was observed in answers to a question of a situation with unemployment in the next year.

to level of 15-18% in annual calculation, we consider that service of a debt will negatively affect consumption, the chief economist considers JOINT-STOCK COMPANY "ALFA-BANK" Orlova Natalia.