Emergency situation! Such was not even in the middle of war: power review

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the Review of the main events of the Ukrainian power from February 10 to February 16, 2017 goda

Gas

According to data of Public joint-stock company "Ukrtransgaz" (the operator of the Ukrainian gas transmission system), stocks of natural gas in the Ukrainian underground gas storages (UGS) as of February 13 made 9,396 billion cubic meter. Thus, since the beginning of a heating season Ukraine spent about 5,82 billion cubic meter of gas (from them since the beginning of 2017 — about 2,382 billion cubic meter), an expense of stocks with firmness keep at the level of 0,5 billion cubic meter a week. However soon the expense can significantly grow as in the conditions of blockade of supply of coal from Donets Basin and exhaustions of stocks the government can go for introduction in operation of oil-gas blocks of thermal power plant (in a reserve, Uglegorsk, Zaporozhye, Tripolsky thermal power plant. Total power — 5400 MWt)

" If will not prolong state regulation of the prices for requirements of the population, so-called "special obligations", that, proceeding from the current gas prices in the European markets, a hryvnia exchange rate and other factors, it is possible to expect that gas prices for requirements of the population will grow by 40% [approximately with 6,8 to 10,2 thousand UAH for one thousand cubic meter] … If state regulation prolong with what has to agree International Monetary Fund as in the memorandum the government promised Fund that special duties were entered only till April 1 then rise in prices, probably, will manage to be postponed until October " — such not too joyful statement for Ukrainians was made by the commercial director of Naftogaz of Ukraine state holding National joint-stock company "Naftogaz Ukraine" Vitrenko Youri . the Prime minister Volodymyr Groysman already managed to promise strong that, at least, till April the price will not raise, having threatened Vitrenko Youri with dismissal for such statements. At the same time the head of the government changed a state regulation order. If earlier the Ministry of Economic Development was engaged in it, now this function included in competence of the Ministry of Energy.

Poland in 2016 exported to Ukraine 400 million cubic meter of gas. Potentially this volume can be increased by 4 times, to 1,5 billion cubic meter, and just the Polish concern of Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo intends to be engaged in it. Besides, according to the deputy head of Voznyak Matvey , Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo in 2017 — 2020 are going to increase capacity several times. In total in 2016 Ukraine got natural gas at 15 companies from the different countries EU. According to information National joint-stock company "Naftogaz Ukraine", it including French Engie (earlier GDF Suez S.A.), German RWE Supply and Trading, Uniper SE Global Commodities (earlier part E.ON AG), TrailStone, British Shell Energy Europe, Swiss Axpo Trading, Statoil ASA, Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo, Czech CEZ and "other leading companies Europe". In "National joint-stock company "Naftogaz Ukraine"" specified that all contractual relations are governed by the standardized contracts EFET (The European federation of power traders), and all in 2016 the company imported 8,2 billion cubic meter of gas.

In turn, the Minister of Energy Russian Federation Alexander Novak also commented on a situation with a reverse of the Russian gas from Europe to Ukraine. to

"to to All it is clear to p that it is a question of an artificial reverse. Gas comes to Ukraine not from Austria or Slovakia, and from "Velke-Kapushana's" gas-distributing station on the Slovak-Ukrainian border through which there is a transit of the Russian gas to Europe. It is our Russian gas only bought by Ukraine through the European intermediaries. Besides, if to analyse balance of supply of the Russian gas of Europe, it is possible to see that its export to Slovakia and other European countries last year grew approximately on as much as far as supply of gas to Ukraine " was reduced — Alexander Novak declared. However it is impossible to make, seemingly, anything: "P ovliyat legally on this process we cannot as possibility of use of gas pipelines in a reversny mode is provided by the European legislation " — the Russian minister stated.

Public joint-stock company "Ukrtransgaz" according to statements of consumers (Ukrainians complained of smaller heating capacity of gas) held testing of quality of gas by three laboratories: " Here at us in megajoules — 37,95, in "Kiyevoblgaz" — 38,10, and in Public joint-stock company "Ukrtransgaz" — 38,02. The error almost minimum — under the code is required at least 36,2, that is all three results even it is better, than it is required by the code of the gas transmission system" — the press secretary of "Kiyevoblgaz" Anna Glyatsevich . In other words, gas to Ukrainians do not dilute, tries to prove Kiev reports (the operator of the Integrated power market Ukraine), coal stocks on the Ukrainian thermal power plants for February 14 made 1,507 million tons (-101 thousand tons from last week). Thus 818 thousand tons from total of stocks — coals of anthracitic brands, 689 thousand tons — gas coals. For the past week the quantity of self-appointed posts on the railroad to Donetsk Oblast increased that at once affected dynamics of reduction of stocks (increased by 2,65 times).

In a power supply system Ukraine worked on February 15 with p of 33 blocks and 2 cases of thermal power plant with a general power of 5819 MWt (about 41,2% of the general power of the Ukrainian thermal generation). Apparently, capacities of thermal generation gradually bring out of work, a week ago they were about 2000 MWt more. Partially it is compensated by nuclear power — on February 14 to OES Ukraine connected the 14th block of the nuclear power plant that happens quite seldom (usually work 12−13, while 2−3 under repair). Literally the other day to this measure advised to resort the ex-Minister of Energy Vladimir Demchishin .

Under repair 1 power unit and 2 cases of thermal power plant ". Out of a reserve due to the lack of coal 4 power units and 2 cases of thermal power plant (1513 MWt) From them 913 MWt — on coal of anthracitic group. However the raised load of the power units working at coals of gas group, could not but affect and them: 2 power units "DTEK Power" (600 MWt) were compelled to stop as the management of the company did not consider blockade during planning of stocks. Also out of a reserve of 2 oil-gas power units of "Tsentrenergo" (600 MWt) due to the lack of gas. Excess of boundary consumption on a power supply system as a whole — 1476 MWt.

In a subject of railway blockade of Donets Basin. " From coal is made the electric power and heat. Where this heat is delivered? To houses, housing, apartments of citizens. It is a question of that blocking of supply of coal which does not have alternative … it means only one — a stop and rolling blackouts on all territory of the country. Whether it is necessary to such to lead up — I think that is not present " — the prime minister declared Ukraine to Volodymyr Groysman on air of Broadcasting Company "Ukraine".

"I more than am convinced by p that the blockade question — is a question of the political decision. You have to tell accurately: the uncontrollable territory — is Ukraine or not Ukraine, 60 thousand miners which there work — are Ukrainians or not. The total block will deprive of them a subsistence. You have to assume responsibility" — such address was made by the head of the Ministry of Energy Nasalik Igor to People's Deputies Ukraine. It is necessary to add that the speech not only about 60 thousand miners. Blockade threatens with a stop to at least two enterprises of Donets Basin — Avdeevsky koksokhimu and to Alchevsky metallurgical complex. The last, though is in the territory of Luhansk People's Republic, taxes in the budget Ukraine all the same continues to pay.

As for the blockade, on air of 1%2B1 TV channel TV channel "1+1" the minister gave the cost of refusal of Donetsk coal: "It is necessary to understand at once, it is 15 billion hryvnias of additional resources, and we have to understand that these 15 billions … For whose account the ball will be? " On air of other TV channel it gave also other assessment: 2−2,5 years is required on full reorganization of thermal stations. Let's remind, even in the summer of last year the minister assured that Ukraine does not buy coal from Donets Basin and what to exclude it from an energy balance completely — not a problem.

A on February 16 with a situation interfered already and the president Petro Poroshenko , having made a speech at Sovnatsbez's meeting Ukraine. According to its data, blockade of supply of coal from Donets Basin will cause to the Ukrainian budget damage at least in $2 billion, not to mention social shocks. " the Ukrainian metallurgy if blockade is not stopped and organizers will bring her to, so to speak, design capacity, can lose to 300 thousand workplaces. 300 thousand people will be on street. The state will lose to $2 billion currency revenue with all that it implies for a course to hryvnia. The B lokada supply of coal from the occupied regions of Donets Basin will provoke unemployment in these territories therefore local miners to survive, will be compelled to join ranks of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic " — the president declared. Petro Poroshenko announced new meeting of National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine for discussion of urgent measures on neutralization of threats of energy security of the country, the supply of coal connected with blockade.

" it is simplest to span to solve, of course, a problem, having simply cleaned from the railroad protesting and posts. Why it does not become now? Probably, because of proximity on February 20−22 — anniversaries of the culmination of Evromaydan … Probably, are afraid of consequences, a resonance. Perhaps wait for the first real shutdowns that on their background power operation concerning blocking looked severe need — here it is necessary to guess only " — the expert in power, the Co-chairman of Fund of power strategy Marunich Dimitri .

Rezhim extraordinary situatsii

Grafiki rolling blackouts declared in the comment to the correspondent information agency "REGNUM" are already ready, however are available while only in a general view. According to in the Anti-recessionary power staff at Cabinet of Ministers, without light inhabitants of the Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Kiev, Chernigov, Zaporozhye, Sumy and Cherkassk areas can shortly sit. It is known also that will disconnect first of all large industrial consumers. On the condition of anonymity in the Ministry of Energy report the following: " Situation critical. Such low stocks of coal were not on thermal power plant even in 2014 in the middle of military operations " — "Bagnet's" portal quotes the source. As of February 15 coal stocks on the majority of thermal stations fluctuate from 14 to 40 days.

Considering current situation, Government of Ukraine at an emergency meeting on February 15 nevertheless entered state of emergency in power. According to the law, state of emergency it is entered for a period of a month and it can be prolonged. The last time such situation was entered in 2014 by the government Arseniy Yatsenyuk and about half a year worked.

" Because of "blockade" of temporarily uncontrollable territories Ukraine that caused artificial deficiency of anthracitic coal from which a third of all electric power in the country is made, the government made the decision on acceptance of temporary emergency measures in the market of electric energy … On thermal power plants for which anthracitic coal is the basic in energy production, special measures of economy of raw materials will be entered. That is the Ukrainian thermal power plants pass into an energy saving operating mode. Loading will increase by nuclear power plants and by thermal power plant which work at other group of coal … Introduction of emergency measures in the market of electric energy does not mean automatic blackout and heat for the population " — is spoken in an explanation of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers. Government of Ukraine emphasizes that "very much counts" on national consciousness of initiators of so-called coal blockade, on their understanding of consequences of such actions — "as further overlapping of tracks threatens with serious economic and social problems for Ukraine".

Since what moment should wait for rolling blackouts? "While the probability of such shutdowns is rather low as in thermal power plant warehouses it is enough coal stocks … But, on the other hand, even if to agree directly today, the first parties will come to ports when? In about 30−40 days. Only Russian quicker if such decision is of the government at the level. In case of blockade continuation at us on the majority of thermal power plant stocks will run low in few weeks at the current loadings" — Dmitry Marunich makes comments on Marunich Dimitri, as well as in 2014, can give command to heat gas, that is will uncover oil-gas blocks on thermal power plant.

" However there are difficulties. First, it is more expensive — is approximately twice higher than the current tariff of thermal power plant. Secondly, that we know about these blocks — is the theory. That they are, since the USSR still. They precisely are and will be started on the Zmiyevsky and Tripolsky thermal power plant, entering state "Tsentrenergo", in 2014 them started. In what state these blocks are at DTEK — a question. It to know well either at them, or in the Anti-recessionary staff. But even if all are ready, who and how will compensate to the private supplier additional expenses? " — the expert asks a question.

Chapter NPG Ukraine Volynets Mikhail warns that if the situation with blockade will reach thermal power plant and combined heat and power plant stops and blackout, then on restart of system not less than half a year can leave: " … Perezapusk of all system at best will take about seven months. And that step by step, by means of Russian Federation. After all in case of such large-scale accident we will not be able simply to start our power supply system by means of Western Europe. With an identical frequency at us with Europe absolutely different parameters, other cosine. In other words, we have no such equipment, filters which could carry out the electric power from the West to those parameters which the countries of the former USSR " use. Volynets Mikhail reminded that not only a half of thermal power plants burns the coal which deliveries are now blocked, but also 70% of the large combined heat and power plants providing with light and heat the regional centers and the capital.

" the Average retail tariff for the electric power for the population (economically reasonable tariff) in January, 2017 makes p to 2,31 hryvnia for 1 kW • h with the VAT. That is now the population pays only 42,29% of market level of a tariff " — such statement last week was made by the National commission on regulation of the market of the electric power. The purpose of such rhetoric is obvious. On March 1, 2017 the last of a series of the increases of a tariff planned still at the time of Yanukovych on the electric power for the population — from 1,29 UAH/kW will take place • h to 1,68 UAH/kW • h (with 2,8 to 3,6 rub). However at that time thermal generation managed much cheaper, than today therefore even 1,68 UAH — already are not enough. Such image, NKRE prepares justification for further increases of a tariff. However, according to the economist Okhrimenko Alexander, insist on the same figure and International Monetary Fund", Nasalik Igor specified that at present in the ministry refused formula "Rotterdam%2b" use (the price of ton of steam coal at the exchange in Rotterdam plus a transport shoulder).

"The difference between that price at which coal of gas group and anthracitic group in Ukraine is bought, on 1,5 thousand UAH is less, than it would be with "Rotterdam%2v". Therefore it not argument for the general action. We departed, as the ministry, from "Rotterdama%2v". Instead in a formula on which the wholesale and retail price of the electric power pays off, the price of 1730 UAH/ton is put. However this price can increase by 20−25% (to 2076−2162 UAH/ton)" — the minister at an emergency meeting of the government if supply of coal from territories of Donets Basin is not unblocked declared and it is necessary to carry coal from South Africa.

Today the formula does not work with p, but after all she acted and allowed thermal generation to receive additional resources. What size of this "bonus"?

" Totally thermal generation earned by p more than 10 billion hryvnias thanks to a formula "Rotterdam%2b". NKREKU [the National commission on regulation in the sphere of power and utilities — the Edition] explained that this formula was entered for autonomy from the zone "ATO", and Ukrainians paid for power independence. However still independence is not present. Where this money and who will bear responsibility went? " — the ex-member of NKREKU Gerus Andrey whom the news agency information agency "UNIAN" quotes asks a question.

By the way, at the same time with introduction of state of emergency in power the government imposed a ban on export of all brands of coal. the Analyst of public organization "Public Audit" Galayda Taras during a press conference reminded p to

that to reduce today all problems to one only to blockade incorrectly: " the Question with supply of coal arose not this year, and lasts for three years. And last year there were interruptions, and in it … If last year coal was not delivered on unwillingness of that party, this year deliveries so-called activists and representatives blocked The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. The problem exists any more the first year. To expect that all power system Ukraine and energy security is depending on supply of coal only from uncontrollable territories, at least negligently and silly. The government, knowing about this problem, had to find some sources of delivery of this resource … At Zakharchenko and Carpenter's something can exchange, and they can not put coal on own initiative irrespective of, blockade or not " is raised. Oil

Closed joint-stock company "Kremenchugsky oil refinery" passes p with

to Azeri Light brand oil refining in this connection exempts tanks from the Urals oil belonging Open joint-stock company "Ukrtransneft" (the operator of the Ukrainian oil pipelines). At the enterprise separately emphasize that do not plan to work soon with Urals, and therefore release the maximum volume for storage. The company, in turn, realizes oil at the exchange as the state has no own capacities for its processing. by

As it was reported earlier, "Ukrtransnafta" planned to begin since February Azeri Light deliveries on the oil pipeline from Odesa to Kremenchuk, however while deliveries are late. Urals, with which the oil pipeline was filled before (170 thousand tons), overtook on the Belarusian oil refineries.

Chapter of Open joint-stock company "Ukrnafta" (the private and state company) Rollins Mark at a press conference in Kiev warned that in 2017 oil production will decrease by 9,1% (to 1,38 million tons) in comparison with last year. He did not specify with what it is connected, however it is possible to judge the reasons according to other his statements. Most likely, matter in the termination of licenses for production and bureaucratic work on their extension, and also exhaustion of wells and need of drilling new (the company is going to invest over 9 billion UAH in production) .

Otopleniye

Seredina month — Ukrainians receive receipts for heating. According to the first reports, figures in them are on the average 25−30% higher, than a month ago: January this year was given cool, with resistant subzero temperature. The first revolts are noted — in Exactly about one hundred people came to protest to the building of a local boiler room. Citizens complain that pay regularly, and temperature in apartments keeps on a mark %2B12.

B Kiev do not revolt yet, but write petitions with requirements to allow to refuse a central heating: " of the Battery can be or warmish, or in general — cold — the author of the petition Artem Varusha to . Despite it, to consumers payment orders for so-called "consumed" heat all the same will come. The subsidy does not solve this problem but only minimizes its relevance … I ask the city authorities to develop the mechanism on which all inhabitants of Kiev, at own will, could refuse services in the centralized heating for inhabitants of Kiev and establish at itself in apartments alternative sources of heating of the house — electric convectors or gas coppers [installation of the last is forbidden in apartment houses higher than 9 floors — Red] ". the Situation everything is closer than p to

to critical, Alexander Okhrimenko believes Okhrimenko Alexander considers that in future heating season the number of applicants for a subsidy considerably will grow — in spite of the fact that already today it and so every second household.

to

Also read:

I rolling blackouts of electricity again approach: the review of the main events of the Ukrainian power from February 2 to February 10, 2017 goda

Guard, to us not to live without Donetsk coal! — The review of the main events of the Ukrainian power from January 25 to February 2, 2017

the Price of refusal of the Russian gas — "A great smog" in Kiev: review of the main events of the Ukrainian power from January 1 to January 25, 2017

East European edition information agency "REGNUM"