Ruble, som and kwacha

of the Photo: Trefilov Vladimir / RIA Novosti

ruble Strengthening against a rise in prices for oil is higher than $50 for barrel made the Russian currency one of the most attractive assets for investments this year, writes agency " with .com /" target =" _ blank"> Information company "Bloomberg" . The western investors use ruble in carry trade strategy, trading on a difference in rates: occupy currency abroad under low interest, and then buy ruble papers with high profitability. On this the Commissions on trade in commodity futures of United States of America (CFTC), by October 4 the volume of long positions in futures for ruble reached a historical maximum in 77,6 billion rubles — it 8,3 times more, than the total volume of rates on falling of the Russian currency.

the Analyst of JP Morgan Chase %26 Co bank Siddiki Saad who, according to ratings " .com /" target =" _ blank"> Information company "Bloomberg" , gave the most exact forecasts on ruble in the third quarter, warns that now the Russian currency looks overestimated. It does it especially vulnerable before sharp movements of prices of oil in the future which can provoke large-scale sales, the expert explains.

On Tuesday an index of relative force of ruble (RSI, relative strength index — the technical indicator) which defines probability of change of a trend, made 35 units whereas already 30 units testify that the currency can weaken, " .com/news/articles/2016-10-11/ruble-drops-from-one-year-high-as-citi-says-opec-deal-priced-in"> notes " .com /" target =" _ blank"> Information company "Bloomberg" .

However the statement of the president Vladimir Putin about readiness to reduce oil production to Russian Federation which it made on October 10, strengthening of dollar of United States of America helped ruble to sustain p, having pushed oil quotations to the highest level in 12 months — higher than $53 for barrel, write in the review of analytics of JSC "Sberbank commercial investment bank" Levinson Tom, Lutsko Iskander and Tsibanov Vladimir. Earlier the strategist on emerging markets of BlackRock hedge fund Trigo Sergio Paz <=" _ blank" href = "bloomberg http://www.<"5>" .com/news/articles/2016-10-06/ruble-climbs-as-credit-suisse-says-rally-has-further-to-run"> declared to a target that the cost of oil can grow to $60 for barrel, and it does ruble "almost obligatory" for purchase. The JP Morgan Chase %26 Co bank, in turn, expects ruble strengthening for 3,5% of the current level until the end of the year.

Ruble — not the only currency which this year manages to grow against dollar of United States of America. Analysts of JSC "Sberbank commercial investment bank" add that the real resistance to dollar this year is shown also by other raw currencies, including Canadian dollar, the South African rand, Mexican peso and Brazilian real.

Leaders and outsiders

according to the terminal " .com /" target =" _ blank"> Information company "Bloomberg" , the leader of growth in relation to dollar of United States of America since the beginning of year became Brazilian real which became stronger for 23,5%. On the second place — ruble which for the same time grew by 17,9%, and the Japanese yen (15,7%) closes the three of leaders. In the top ten currencies also are included Iceland krona (13,5% to dollar), Zambian kwacha (11,11%), the Kyrgyz som (10,9%), Colombian peso (8,9%), the South African rand, loti of Lesotho and Namibian dollar (on 8,6%). The Norwegian krone which grew to dollar slightly less, than for 8,6%, appeared at the lower bound of a rating.

Other raw currencies showed to p more modest dynamics: the rate of Canadian dollar rose by 4,7%, and Australian dollar — for 3,6%. Mexican peso at all fell since the beginning of year to 9,5%. Its result, however, will not be compared to dynamics of the worst currencies of this year — the Venezuelan bolivar, Mozambique metical and Surinam dollar which failed for 37, 38 and 46% respectively.

the Research company Capital Economics in the the review , published on October 11, warns about high political risks in Mexico and South Africa which can put pressure upon rates of peso and rand. The Mexican currency fluctuates together with a rating Donald Trump to United States of America who during election campaign promises to take the drastic protectionist measures, capable to strike on the Mexican economy. Besides, because of close economic relations between Mexico and United States of America the peso can strongly suffer from probable increase of a rate of FRS, explains Capital Economics. In South Africa scandal with the Minister of Finance Pravin Gordan whom are going to bring to trial for fraud now grows. Also analysts doubt that the current rise in prices for raw materials will help South Africa to reduce a budget deficit.

High political risks call p into question and appeal of Brazilian real, the analyst "Opening the Broker" Kochetkov Andrey adds. "Brazil is in political crisis, besides there high inflation and maximum in ten years a rate at the level of 14,25%. Economic prospects of the country are doubtful" — he noted. For Anglo-Saxon raw currencies — the Canadian and Australian dollars — are characteristic strong dependence on policy of Federal Reserve System United States of America America and weak dynamics because of low interest rates in these countries, Kochetkov Andrey concludes.

it is strict on the North

Raw currencies, noteworthy, investors should look for not in or , and in the European North, considers the deputy director of analytical department "ALPARI" Kokoreva  Anna. In her opinion, on the long horizon the ruble will become stronger rather at the expense of a rise in prices for oil and improvement of macroeconomic indicators. Thus the main risk for ruble investments is at all dynamics of staple prices, and uncertainty in policy of United States of America. "In long-term prospect the dollar can decrease to 50 rub" — the expert predicts.

the Norwegian krone is today one of the cheapest currencies , reminds Kokoreva  Anna. If in November to the countries OPEC is possible to agree about oil production reduction, it will continue to grow, the analyst explains. The financial giant of Bank of America Merrill Lynch in the currency review also recommended to investors to look narrowly on October 7 at krone: The bank Norway at the last meeting in the fourth time in a row kept an interest rate at the level of 0,5% and hinted at toughening of monetary policy. "In medium-term prospect we recommend to buy Norwegian krone during each recession" — authors of the review write.

of the Senior portfolio operating UK "Kapital" Bit-Avragim Vadim emphasizes that in raw currencies it does not make sense to be put on short-term prospect. In December of this year the FRS rate, most likely, will be raised that will cause large-scale correction in the raw materials markets, the financier speaks. And here investments into ruble or krone for longer term can quite justify themselves. "The world Central Banks gradually pass p with

from monetary mitigation to fiscal stimulation (to increase in the public expenditures at projects which will be able to generate economic growth in the future). It means that demand for raw assets will grow from what, eventually, will win also the corresponding currencies" — explained Bit-Avragim Vadim.