the Sarezsky lake in Tajikistan in case of a collapse of a dam threatens to flood part of the territory of Central Asia. Risks increased again against seismic activity in Mountain Badakhshana.
the Amplified seismic activity on Pamir drew again attention of scientists to the Sarezsky lake in Tajikistan. After several powerful earthquakes which epicenter was near Sarez, experts started talking again about risks of break of a dam and flooding threat for the region.
recorded on December 7 tremors measuring seven points." And, for example, on December 14-15 in Sarez's pool there were more than 20 notable earthquakes measuring 4-5 points", - told DW the head of laboratory of an assessment of seismic danger and geoecology of Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan Anatoly Ishchuk.
According to him, December earthquakes are almost comparable with that occurred on Pamir in February, 1911 when after powerful tremors and the lake was formed. Then part of the mountain, having fallen to the river Murghab, blocked it, having covered also the settlement with Usa. In this regard people from neighboring settlements called a blockage Usoysky, and a reservoir Sarezsky - in honor of the gorge of the same name.
In disturbing expectation
of
from the moment of emergence of the lake remains actual a question of stability of a 500-meter natural dam. It is considered that if the blockage will not sustain pressure, in Central Asia there will be a terrible accident." Accident will be such scales that the tsunami in South East Asia of 2004 when 200 thousand people were lost, will seem harmless incident", - explained DW the expert in Central Asia and water problems of the region Andrey Zakhvatov.
Andrey Zakhvatov
Andrey Zakhvatov
of
By its estimates, a descent of water will cause a powerful muddy-debris flow up to 80 meters high which will start sweeping away everything on the way. "It is counted that the elements will mention the territory of Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in which now live about 7 million people", - emphasized Captures.
It noted that elimination of consequences of the tragedy will require decades." The people who have escaped from a flood will lose housing, power supplies. In a zone of flooding dangerous infections will extend. Fields and pastures will become useless. Therefore it is now important to develop and carry out the project of safe descent of part of volume of water and not to allow such scenario", - told Captures.
Real threat
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the Former commander of Tsentrospas group of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Tajikistan Andrey Pilkevich happened more than once on Sarez. According to the expert, the dam at the strongest earthquake hardly completely will collapse." Length of zavalny part - 5 kilometers, and width underwater - 1,5 kilometers. In case of accident probably pressure will demolish only the top part of a dam - all water will not leave. But even thus it is worth waiting for catastrophic consequences", - Pilkevich noted. Anatoly Ishchuk
Anatoly Ishchuk
Experts call
not less than 7 sources of danger to Sarez. The most serious - a possible landslide on the right coast of the lake. By estimates of experts, its volume makes to two cubic kilometers. According to a hypothesis, the collapse of this weight threatens to cause a water overlap through a crest of a blockage and its washout.
during an earthquake on December 7 specialists of service of monitoring recorded small falling of stones and dust lifting." Big collapses, fortunately, did not occur. Events showed that we have a certain stability of this slope", - the seismologist Anatoly Ishchuk reported.
Technical solutions
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Here scientists argue more than 100 years as it would be possible to secure the lake. During this time researchers could prepare some long-term solutions. Some experts suggest to lower, for example, a water level, having strengthened its filtration through the Usoysky blockage.
the Second option - construction a mudflow - a water protective dam below the Usoysky blockage for control of a possible wave in case of lake break. The third initiative - descent of water to 50 meters by tunnel construction. Experts say that it is quite real, but is business of the long-term future." Project expensive. Without any commercial benefit hardly someone will want to enclose half a billion dollars", - Ishchuk noted.
However, known Russian hydrobuilders Yury Sevenard and Alexander Ryabikin find possible hydroelectric power station with a power about 300 megawatts construction below the Usoysky blockage.
"In this case will be solved a problem of fall of a water level to a safe mark, Pamir will receive a source of the electric power and costs of the project will pay off", - believes Captures. For now safety of the huge pool depends on monitoring system which modernized at the beginning of the 2000th years.
Date of 21.12.2015
Author Galim Faskhutdinov, Dushanbe