The ACRE studied deviations of predictors

Analysts of rating agencies the ACRE investigated features of different sources of macroeconomic forecasts on Russian Federation regarding them "steady shifts and predictability of indicators". First of all authors of research note that, despite abundance of macroforecasts to Russian Federation, their horizon does not exceed five years, and alternative basic scenarios are published seldom. Thus from a third to a half of participants consensus forecasts (estimates became on the basis of FocusEconomics data) for a year forward are systematic "optimists" or "pessimists" relatively average values of consensus that "in...