Than will be for Tbilisi the program "East partnership"
They say that in the house of the hung up do not tell about a rope. Only Georgia it not the decree, Georgians started talking. As the Georgian political scientist Sharashenidze Tornik declared to "the Messenger of the Caucasus", making comments on recent performances of Armenians in Dzhavakhetiya, disintegration Georgia "for certain will lead to full loss by Armenia independence". Sharashenidze Tornik cannot imagine that someone in Yerevan, being in senses, supported "crazy ideas on capture of the Georgian territories and war provoking". At the same time the German political scientists Mayster Shtefan and Daniel Hamilton in the new publication for the German society of foreign policy (DGAP) under the name "East voices: whether listens to the West? " consider that "indifference of United States of America and weakness of EU leave big vacuum in the region". And the American expert De Vaal Thomas, in turn, recommends to create "technical expert group" which work "has to be concentrated on the help in the state construction to the countries South Caucasus, but not on creation of strategic alliances".
Meanwhile when in August, 2008 the president Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili launched the Caucasian war therefore Abkhazia and South Ossetia were recognized as Moscow as the independent states, Tbilisi thereby independently were started by process of disintegration of the country. Let's note that post earlier holding then President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev acted with idea about the Georgian confederation where there would be a place Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But it torpedoed Mikheil Saakashvili. Why? Externally, it seems, the Georgian with Abkhazians and Ossetians was a question of possibility of cohabitation, however upon this process inevitably covered also Azerbaijanians and the Armenians making large national communities of the country who could demand granting the status to them at least a cultural autonomy. But for Tbilisi the paradox is that Azerbaijanians and the Armenians clashing among themselves because of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, to Georgia objectively had and have common interests.
At the same time if Mikheil Saakashvili whom in the West designated "the only democrat" in South Caucasus, would go in due time for confederative reform, Georgia not only would keep the territorial integrity, but could change and a geopolitical configuration of all region. Now from time to time, depending on a concrete situation, Baku indicates Tbilisi a discrimination in relation to Azerbaijanians, quietly same does and Yerevan. Thus Azerbaidjan is in a unique situation as in next Iran lives considerable number of people whom ethnically identify as Azerbaijanians and which are exposed to discrimination from outside Tehran. On all signs, on these directions in the region passes the main break. Therefore the question how to provide in specific conditions geopolitical stability and internal political stability Georgia without risks to enter a condition of "shake-ups", remains open.
Not incidentally Venetian commission already recommended toTbilisi as soon as possible to create in the territory special zones with the local government. For example, Azerbaijanians to Georgia occupy the southern, southeast and central regions of the country: Marneuli, Bolnisi, Dmanisi, Gardabani. In them they make the absolute or relative majority. Also Azerbaijanians live in areas Sagarejo, the Caspian Sea, Mtskheta, Tsalka, Lagodekhi, Karelia, Tetri Tsqaro, Burn and Telavi. As for the Armenian community, it makes absolute majority in Akhalkalaksky, Ninotsmindsky and Tsalksky municipalities, regarding Dzhavakhetiya's historical region in the field of Samtskhe-Dzhavakheti. And after all multinational Azerbaidjan and mononational Armenia can declare the first transition to a uniform control system of the European type and create among themselves the special relations, especially in the sphere of "sensitive" problems of the bilateral agenda.
Though while the states South Caucasus do not show readiness and desire to transfer realization of the specified designs of state system to a zone of practical policy. Unless to Georgia statements for need transformation to a federal state taking into account "the last European realities" from time to time sound. However it demands considerable intellectual efforts of breakthrough type. Much easier to accuse of everything Russian Federation which allegedly "seeks to disorganize Georgia for the purpose of creation of a direct corridor for an exit to allied Armenia" or something there something like that, than Tbilisi is justified by a course on integration with EU and expansion of cooperation from NATO. But it testifies only to one: Georgia is far from completion of the geopolitical self-determination, it should plunge even more deeply into the dynamic regional process, which consequences today difficult to predict.
While only one vector of movement in the future is obvious to: continuation of disintegration of statehood with an exit to some states in whole or in part recognized by the international community possessing thus the specific status of relationship with Moscow. Because Georgia influence the future and the processes happening to United States of America or in Russian Federation will influence not, and what began and will proceed in Europe — separatism. Thus Brussels, instead of Moscow, will stimulate in South Caucasus implementation of the scenarios fulfilled in Europe, on gradual comprehensibility of idea of disintegration of the national states. And it, by the way, has to disturb today Russian Federation. Seriously reflect on the future not only there. The other day the known German Focus edition, analyzing the developed geopolitical situation in South Caucasus, stated:
"Process of decentralization passing by fast rates ( specify Ukraine and in the future Georgia — C. T. ) it is supported by the western organizations for assistance, first of all, from EU. Also it becomes within numerous special programs", including such what "East partnership" is. I further: "Frank weakness of the project of the future Georgia ( and not only they are C. T. ) consists that it, in fact, a little that changes in their geopolitical situation which has developed after 1991, and only reproduces that situation as a result of which Europe in 2014 was in serious crisis in area of safety. The Georgian, and also their western friends forgetting about the basic fact of vacuum in the field of policy of safety in the center Eastern Europe and by that inadvertently to promote preservation of that fragile architecture which will need or to be replaced sooner or later can incline aspiration gradually to improve the present scenario of "a gray zone", or it will be completely destroyed".
