For Iraq Province of Kurdistan developed very favorable situation which can already never and not to be. The confused ball of contradictions Near East does not allow regional players to render necessary counteraction to referendum consequences about nezavisimosti
on September 25 in Iraq Province of Kurdistan there will take place a referendum about independence, the new state can turn out to be consequence of this step, what prospects of this process we will try to sort in this article.
the Prime minister Iraq Province of Kurdistan Nechirvan Masud Barzani in 2014, making comments on a situation with capture by fighters of IGIL (the organization which activity is forbidden to Russian Federation) Mosul, declared actual the following: Iraq already never will be former. It seems that his words become prophetical, after all after invasion of terrorists, Kurds had an opportunity to achieve the century dream.
Despite appeals from the international community, in particular the regional powers which are least interested in the Kurdish independence (Iran, Turkey), a referendum it is impossible to postpone. It was told and made for this purpose the top officials Iraq Province of Kurdistan too much. However that will be after a referendum? Whether the president Iraq Province of Kurdistan to declare "12" independence? To give the answer to this question it is necessary to sit over a problem.
of the Reason of a referendum
After overthrow Saddam Hussein in Iraq Province of Kurdistan created a wide autonomy. Kurds received own armed forces — peshmerga ("Looking in a death face"), not submitting to the central Government of Iraq, own economic opportunities — Erbil, passing Baghdad, sells oil to Turkey, and also considerable share in political and economic systems of the country. Under the federal Constitution Province of Kurdistan gains 17% of income of sale of the Iraq oil (received till 2014), and also has proportional representation in the government Baghdad. In particular, under the Constitution the Kurd has to be the president of the country. Originally this position was held by the leader "Patriotic union Province of Kurdistan" (PSK) Dzhalyal Khusamaddin Talabani (2005−2014) then it on this post was replaced by his member of the same party Muhammad Fuad Masum Khavrami.
the 90th years for Iraq Province of Kurdistan were years of heartrending experiences. First of all it is a question of the military intra Kurdish conflict. Operations with application of artillery were conducted between PSK and Democratic party Province of Kurdistan (DPK) which is headed by the incumbent president of the Kurdish autonomy Masud Barzani. In the 2000th years the picture cardinally changed: Province of Kurdistan started prospering, the internal conflicts began to decline, there was a middle class. Actually, for the first time in history the Iraq Kurds reached wellbeing and were in only one step from independence finding.
As were noted by many experts, Kurds de facto already built own state, the independence announcement actually turned into legal formality which, nevertheless, would have serious consequences for all region. Therefore Kurds did not hurry, especially the major oil-bearing Governorate of Kirkuk which to Kurds is important first of all the symbolical value, was not under control to them.
2014, approach of "The Islamic state" Began(the organization which activity is forbidden to Russian Federation) made serious changes to an alignment of forces in Iraq. Between Kurds and terrorists practically operations, and the military help from outside EU began at once and, to a lesser extent, United States of America quickly led to progress. Peshmerga occupied Governorate of Kirkuk, the city without which Kurds could not present own state. This ancient cultural center, according to Kurds, has to become the new capital Iraq Province of Kurdistan. Before it was under Baghdad, but now, for the first time, the last obstacle to independence was eliminated.
Should note also that fact that Government of Iraq ceased to pay to the Kurds, put by it under the Constitution of 17% of the income from oil sale. The thought that Kurds to reconcile to it seems simply ridiculous therefore no wonder that Erbil entered the diplomatic conflict to Baghdad.
the International context
to Hold a referendum — it only a business floor, especially for Kurds it not in the first, so in 2005 they already saw off him, without concrete political results. To hope for obtaining independence it is necessary to understand, on whose support it is possible to rely who is ready to recognize the Kurdish statehood and how regional powers, and also the world community will concern to her?
If to assume that after September 25 will create the Kurdish state, probably the first it is recognized by Israel. Position Tel Aviv is about it created for a long time and, unlike other powers, sounds directly and without diplomatic quirks. Besides economic and cultural cooperation, Israel is imposed by creation in the territory Near East the second, rather secular state focused on the Western way of development. Tel Aviv considerably will strengthen the at least because his ill-wishers, in particular at Iran, will have new cares.
However us the opinion of those powers which more than the others are interested in the processes happening in Iraq as they in the territory also have the Kurdish population interests more. Turkey and Syrie is a question of Iran.
it is obvious tothat Damascus, for obvious reasons, in this three less all can affect on Erbil.
As for Turkey, then a situation the extremely curious. Even in an official position Ankara behaves not so rigidly as could. Categorical rejection is expressed in a friend advice and recommendations. Reason for that wise policy from outside Erbil. First at the president Iraq Province of Kurdistan Masud Barzani developed rather cordial relations with President of Turkey Recep Erdogan. Besides, Erbil directly sells some years Turkey oil, so Ankara, in case of any rigid actions, risks to lose the good partner. Besides, it is important to emphasize that the Iraq Kurds refused support "A Labour party Province of Kurdistan" (RPK), the organization which for decades combats the government Turkey. Ankara cannot break RPK in spite of the fact that almost every day carries out against it special operations. Strain of relations with Erbil, in this point, also will not do good Turkey. From all aforesaid it is possible to conclude that the developed relations between Erbil and Ankara more than ever favor to declaration of the Kurdish independence in Iraq.
As for Iran, it opposes categorically independence of Kurds, however and here Erbil can find a point of support, in particular, the same economic relations: Tehran uglevodor from Iraq Province of Kurdistan interest about which already there are arrangements, besides there are negotiations on construction to the railroad from Iran to Syrian Latakiya, the way has to pass through the territory Iraq Province of Kurdistan who as Ikbal Dyurre notes , in case of independence finding, becomes the guarantor of its stability. Certainly, it is not enough of all this in order that the position Tehran was softened on independence of the Iraq Kurds, however it creates some opportunities for .
As for United States of America, official Washington D.C. opposes a referendum, however the Adviser on national United States of America the general Makmaster Herbert declared that it is worth waiting for results of a referendum and already then to think, what to do farther. As a whole United States of America always supported Kurds, exactly thanks to them, after war in the Persian Gulf, the Iraq Kurds received formal an autonomy, and after overthrow Saddam Hussein and legal. Kurds also received from Washington D.C. the weapon and as a whole the Iraq Province of Kurdistan goes on the way of the western westernisation therefore with Americans they, if something happens, will manage to agree always.
to wait forof That from a referendum?
very favorable situation which can already never and not to be developedThus, for Iraq Province of Kurdistan. The confused ball of contradictions Near East does not allow regional players to give the full answer to a call from outside Erbil.
Certainly, a referendum it is already impossible to postpone, too many words were told, were made all parties of this geopolitical game too much. It is not necessary to doubt results of a referendum also. However its positive outcome at all does not mean immediate independence of the region. It is thought that it is necessary long and difficult negotiation process with all interested parties. Diplomatic games can will be tightened for many years.
Despite all this, it is worth establishing that fact that Kurds took the next step on a way to own independence. Having the improbable patience developed throughout century of bloody fights for own freedom, they learned to wait. And it abilities will surely play a role in the near future.
