Following the results of meeting on September 15 Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) lowered a key rate on 0,5 items to 8,5% per annum, is spoken in the message the regulator. This decision explains Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) gross domestic product Gain in the second quarter surpassed by
projections, having reached 2,5% year by a year, notes the regulator. Taking into account current positive loudspeakers Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) raised the GDP growth forecast following the results of 2017 to 1,7-2,2%. In the press release Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) is emphasized that conservative approach of banks to population crediting along with carrying out moderately rigid monetary policy promotes formation of the conditions necessary for fixing of inflation about target level of 4% and the subsequent decrease in inflationary expectations. On this background Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) allows further reduction of a key rate on the horizon of the next two quarters.
the Ruble reacted to decrease in a key rate frostily. After the publication of release Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) (13:30 Moscow time) a ruble exchange rate decreased to dollar for 0,28%, having reached by 13:45 a point 57,69 rubles for dollar. The ruble exchange rate to euro in this period moved slightly — for 0,06% to 68,77 rubles for euro.
the Central Bank Decision Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) on monetary policy as a whole coincided with market expectations. About such outcome of meeting of the regulator warned 84% of the analysts interrogated by agency of information agency "Bloomberg". Decrease in a rate became on September 15 the fourth this year. In the previous time Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) changed a key rate at meeting on June 16 — then it fell by 0,25 items, to 9% per annum. Depending on dynamics of inflationary expectations by the end of 2017 the key rate can decrease to 8–8,25%, the economist "Public joint-stock company "Bank VTB" the Capital" across Russian Federation and Commonwealth of Independent States Isakov Alexander predicts. The chief economist JOINT-STOCK COMPANY "ALFA-BANK" Orlova Natalia allows to this moment reduction of a key rate to 7,5% per annum.
Rateon deposits and credits
Interrogated magazine "Forbes" financiers predict further decrease in interest rates for deposits and credits against mitigation monetary policy Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia). According to the chief analyst PUBLIC JOINT-STOCK COMPANY "BINBANK" Vashchelyuk Natalia, within the closest month of a rate on deposits in rubles can decrease on the average by 0,2-0,3 items. By the end of the year the average maximum interest rate for ruble deposits in the largest banks with high probability will be reduced from the current value of 7,34% per annum to 6,7-7% per annum, the expert considers. To the today's decision Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) managed to lower a key rate on 0,75 items, thanks to it the average rate on short deposits (for up to a year) decreased approximately on 1 items, Vashchelyuk Natalia notes. Rates on credits, according to her, also will continue decrease, as a whole corresponding to the scale of change of a key rate.
the Leading analyst Open joint-stock company "Promsvyazbank" Nasonov Roman reminds that after the previous meeting Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) at which the key rate was lowered at once on 0,5 items (on April 28), the average rates on deposits of natural persons for the term of over one year decreased by 0,37 items to 7,52%, and average rates on credits urgency over one year — by 0,54 items to 15,35% per annum. "Considering lower current level of rates, rates of their decrease in the remained months of this year, most likely, will be not so high" — Nasonov Roman predicts. In his opinion, until the end of the year profitability of deposits will decrease on the average on 0,3 items in comparison with the current level, and average rates on credits — approximately on 0,4 items. In practice real decrease in rates on credit products in a number of banks can reach 2-3 percentage points until the end of the year, the first deputy chairman of PUBLIC JOINT-STOCK COMPANY "SOVKOMBANK" Khotimsky Sergei is convinced.
the Director of the analysis of financial markets and macroeconomics of UK "ALFA-KAPITAL" Bragin Vladimir, however, warns that besides monetary policies Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) on credits and to deposits influence rates also a situation with ruble liquidity, quality of assets in a banking system and expectations on state of the economy. "It is worth waiting for preservation of a descending trend, but, of course, not "one in one" with a key rate" — is summed up by it.
That will be with ruble?
C of closing of session on June 16 — this day Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) reduced a key rate by 0,25 items to 9% per annum — the dollar rate decreased by 0,48%, to 57,49 rubles, and euro, on the contrary, became stronger for 5,9%, to 68,48 rubles. The decision Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) on monetary policy, most likely, will not have essential impact on a ruble exchange rate, the director of the department of crediting and insurance products considers Public joint-stock company joint-stock commercial bank "Absolyut bank" Pavlov Anton. "Probably short-term falling, but more fundamental factors quickly enough will play a role and will balance a ruble exchange rate" — he speaks.
the Interrogated analysts agree in opinion that until the end of this year dynamics of a ruble exchange rate demand for ruble assets from outside still will define nonresidents within the operations carry trade (game on a difference of interest rates). According to the director of the Center of macroeconomic researches Public joint-stock company "Sberbank Russia" Julia Tseplyaeva, now the market recognizes that a considerable difference between real rates in Russian Federation and United States of America which so attracts speculators, will remain slightly more long, than it was expected earlier. "Investors put on that Federal Reserve System United States of America America will not decide on increase of an interest rate neither in September, nor in December of this year. Thus, thanks to preservation of an essential difference between the actual rates in two countries Russian Federation will not lose the positions among the markets attractive to carry trade — at least, until the end of the year" — the expert explains.
C to it Nasonov Roman from Open joint-stock company "Promsvyazbank" agrees: "Even after decrease in a key rate on 0,5 items the difference between interest rates Central bank Russian Federation (Bank Russia) and the western Central Banks will remain still very high — 6-8 items, and in the conditions of inflation delay ruble assets will keep the appeal to nonresidents" — he makes comments. According to Nasonov Roman, in medium-term prospect the ruble exchange rate will continue movement towards the range of 56-57 rubles for dollar.
tothe Russian currency will give support and a stable situation in the oil market, adds Julia Tseplyaeva. "Taking into account that prices of oil, according to our forecasts, will remain near the current levels (more than $50 for barrel), I do not see serious prerequisites to weakening of ruble" — she concludes.