Experts of the research company IHS Global Insight estimate probability of that during a June referendum Great Britain will vote for an exit from EU, in 35–40%. Consequences of a possible exit from EU for Great Britain, according to analysts of IHS, depend on that, negotiations between Great Britain and EU, including concerning the trade agreement and country access on European Single Market will be how successful.
According to to the report , published by the research company IHS Global Insight, probability of that during a referendum about an exit of Great Britain from EU which will pass on June 23 this year, British will vote for an exit from the European Union, makes from 35% to 40%. As they say in the report under the name "Great Britain in EU and out of it: economic background", the majority of experts meet that the exit from EU will strike on economy of Great Britain in short-term prospect, forecasts for long-term prospect disperse.
As the chief economist of IHS across Europe and Great Britain and one of authors of the report Howard Archer declared: "If Great Britain decides to leave EU, consequences will depend on exit conditions. There will be a two-year interval between making decision on an exit and the moment when the exit will really be carried out. Important question which will affect how the economy of Great Britain will pass this period, that is, how friendly, and successful negotiations between Great Britain and EU" will be constructive.
According to analysts of IHS, an exit consequence from EU for the country will strongly differ depending on, whether there will be an exit on "soft" or according to the "rigid" scenario. The "soft" scenario provides successful negotiations of Great Britain with EU and the conclusion of the comprehensive trade agreement, and also full access of the country on European Single Market. Besides, inflow to Great Britain highly skilled workers will proceed at reduction of inflow of the low-qualified. In case of the "rigid" scenario the exit of Great Britain from EU will be long and difficult, it will not get full access on European Single Market. According to authors of the report, such scenario will be accompanied by essential decrease in foreign direct investments and deterioration of positions of London as financial center, and the British migration policy will bring in long-term prospect to shortage of working hands in the country.
Anyway the exit of Great Britain from EU will lead to rather long period of uncertainty. In short-term prospect the exit will quite strongly strike on the British economy and will negatively affect country gross domestic product in 2016, 2017 and, most likely, 2018. Authors of the report also consider possible consequences of an exit for EU: "It is paradoxical, but long-term consequences for EU can be quite positive if political processes after an exit of Great Britain finally lead to more uniform membership in EU, to bigger understanding of what advantages membership in EU, and to increase of readiness to support the all-European institutes and to observe the established rules" gives. As were reported at the beginning of April by the British newspaper The Guardian with reference to online poll of research service Opinium, for an exit from EU 43% of British, oppose an exit — 39% of respondents, the others yet were not defined.
Yana Rozhdestvenskaya
Why the exit from EU will cost much to the British economy
In June, 2015 the Standard %26 Poor's rating agency (S%26P) lowered the forecast on a sovereign rating of Great Britain with stable to the negative. The agency explained the decision to that in case of an exit of Britain from EU it will significantly increase risks for further development of the British economy — from attraction of financing in the European markets before capital and commodity turnover inflow from EU. Read in more detail